Roulette: odds, chances, myths and fact

[explod]

As promised brom the Baccarat thread I have found that a thread dedicated to the possibilities/impossiblities of Roulette should be of considerable interest.

So as the last poster on the other one Royboy and to appease my abrupt insult, much out of order, to Naked shorts lets see where we can go on our enquiry.

First, as a player of the game for many years I have concluded that Roulette is controlled totaly by the house, as we would expect, some forms of that control in my view are foul and some by the skill of the croupiers.

From my tracking/charting of the wheels over time it is far from random. Yes the wheels today are very well ballanced but clear trends over 20 or 30 spins can be played with some success. Again I have found distinct differences between croupiers (the dealers)

But in among this short opening we have a lot to go through and at the moment write this in the midddle of family chores. Just thought I would get the thread going and provide some opportunity for input from others to start the direction to suit the majority. And its the weekend, so time for some fun maybe.

cheers explod

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Explod - howdy ...
I copy this from the "Vegas" thread.
(PS was thinking of you blokes in Vic during the January fires - unprecedented fire risk - almost unimaginable until that day - how dare they say that the climate isn't changing.)

Let's take Vegas as the "middle quality casino" between Aus and Reno - in terms of permissible odds bets behind the pass line

[ you go to Reno, I know you can get 10 times odds bet, possibly more - Aus you only get about 2 times I think ]

Say Vegas is 3 times ,

and you have choice of either .......

a) craps table, betting one $10 chip per roll, and $30 odds bet behind it - and hence you are betting, each hour, about
102 rolls x $10 and in addition about 34 odds bets at $30 = say $2000 per hour, (casino advantage approx 0.47% based on post #11)

b) or roulette wheel, betting at the same rate, eg very approx $70 per roll x 30 rolls of the "little wheel" per hour = $2000 per hour (with "0" and "00", as they do in US, casino advantage is (2 / 38) = 5.26%!! ridiculous)

THEN
a) the craps would cost you $14.40 per hour,

b) and the roulette would cost $105.20 per hour !! (7.3 times more expensive.)

SUMMARY - you can bet for a week playing craps in Vegas, for the same probable loss as betting at the same rate at the roulette wheel - but for 1 day!!. (obviously the chances of winning are much worse at the roulette as well. )

test your roulette theories lol - (what a joke!)
http://www.lonniebest.com/Roulette/

 

[waza1960]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

I believe the best chance with Roulette probably lies with gaining an edge over the croupier although its true in the past some have exploited inconsistantancies with the wheel I think that this is probably hard now with more accurate manufacturing.By an edge over the croupier I'm talking about things such as studying the ability of the croupier to spin the wheel with similar force in other words stopping in a similar quadrant also does this change as the croupier gets tired towards the end of the shift.Of course most punters just follow the numbers or odds similar to the Baccaract thread doubling up chasing red or black or similar.Please Note I once observed a run of 11 red in a row.The amount of money lost in that period was incredible as punters tried the chase the odds of a black.I have being known to have a punt if there are 5 or 6 odds or evens or black or red in a row however just my

 

[treeman]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Yes the wheels today are very well ballanced but clear trends over 20 or 30 spins can be played with some success. Again I have found distinct differences between croupiers (the dealers)

Yes I agree with you. As simple as roulette seems at first glance it is a ball spinning and hitting random numbers all based on random events.
I have been a player of roulette on and off for about 8 years now and it takes time but differences can be noticed. Of course there is no such thing the dealers being able to hit exact numbers, colors or number ranges, it is possible however for those very well trained to focus on particular segments of the wheel.
Roulette has come a very long was in the last 30 or so years, just as card counting has became a hit with blackjack roulette prediction devices have also emerged to aid players.
Casino's are aware of this, it is standard operating procedure for dealers to change direction of wheel spin along with speed of the ball. So between each spin it might be fast-slow-fast clockwise-counterclockwise-clockwise etc. This being said there is strong awareness of prediction, both by the casinos and some punters.
I am not saying there is a conspiracy or anything along those lines, but different dealers
(croupiers) can produce interesting trends.

Not to be fooled roulette is still a game that is totally controlled by the house with the odds always in their favour. But playing for a while interesting trends can be picked up on some tables more then others.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

treeman

Yes I agree with you. As simple as roulette seems at first glance it is a ball spinning and hitting random numbers all based on random events.
I have been a player of roulette on and off for about 8 years now and it takes time but differences can be noticed. Of course there is no such thing the dealers being able to hit exact numbers, colors or number ranges, it is possible however for those very well trained to focus on particular segments of the wheel.
Roulette has come a very long was in the last 30 or so years, just as card counting has became a hit with blackjack roulette prediction devices have also emerged to aid players.
Casino's are aware of this, it is standard operating procedure for dealers to change direction of wheel spin along with speed of the ball. So between each spin it might be fast-slow-fast clockwise-counterclockwise-clockwise etc. This being said there is strong awareness of prediction, both by the casinos and some punters.

To deal with, or reduce this I actually chart left and right hand spins seperately. Often the strong bias will be off the right hand spin where the dealer has greater control.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

I happened to be down at the Sydney casino the other night and noticed that the roulette wheels actually have stats on display which as well as showing the recent numbers that have come up also show stats for how often each invidual number has come up on that table (as a total and a percentage). So the casino's are actually giving out the info for anyone trying to track bias towards certain numbers/colours.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

I happened to be down at the Sydney casino the other night and noticed that the roulette wheels actually have stats on display which as well as showing the recent numbers that have come up also show stats for how often each invidual number has come up on that table (as a total and a percentage). So the casino's are actually giving out the info for anyone trying to track bias towards certain numbers/colours.

Yes they do the same at Crown. I think the averages are taken from more than the last 20 or 30 spins, had not occurred to ask them. But the hot numbers put up on the board are usually cold against the current/recent few spins by the time they are up.

Some sucess can be had by playing the last 3hits with the two on the wheel each side of them, but again distinguish between either left or right hand spin. There can often be a tendancy to return to sectors so this can be expanded. One I have not tried is to ignore the last two and play 3, 4, and 5, sort of trailing. This can be charted over a dozen or so spins to determine the dealers tendancy.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

A couple of years ago Crown brought in new reulette wheels, tables and equipment. I inadvertantly saw behind a screen the bottom side of one of the new roulette tables being prepared. It had hundreds of wires going into the bottom of the table, could have been 10 or 12 into what would be each number on the table. It struck me, so many. After they went into service the games changed and many older regular players made the comment, "they've done something"

One glaring aspect I have observed is that when a player gets onto a roll and others follow and the bets get large for certain areas, the ball drops in a pocket not covered at all. Conspiracy theory? seen it so many times that I wonder. The ball also behaves in ways indicating some directional control.

My take is that the chips and thier values can be assessed backroom. It would be a no brainer in this age of computer/eloctronic knowhow. Have not gone big on it yet but have tried to contact the regulators who are supposed to audit these things but like hitting a brick wall. But of course like pockies the Guvmint get a huge slice. Fair? whos fair anymore.

 

[Mr J]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

2020, you're missing the point. If a croupier has a constistent action, then the result will be predictable. The question is whether they will be consistent.

I happened to be down at the Sydney casino the other night and noticed that the roulette wheels actually have stats on display which as well as showing the recent numbers that have come up also show stats for how often each invidual number has come up on that table (as a total and a percentage). So the casino's are actually giving out the info for anyone trying to track bias towards certain numbers/colours.

It's not useful unless we are also given the information of when the croupier released the ball. Even that may not be useful, depending on greatly croupiers vary their actions.

Some sucess can be had by playing the last 3hits with the two on the wheel each side of them

I highly doubt there is an edge there.

One glaring aspect I have observed is that when a player gets onto a roll and others follow and the bets get large for certain areas, the ball drops in a pocket not covered at all. Conspiracy theory? seen it so many times that I wonder. The ball also behaves in ways indicating some directional control.

While it may be true, I doubt your sample is significant. The human brain is not perfect, so it could easily be a memory bias or coincidence.

Have not gone big on it yet but have tried to contact the regulators who are supposed to audit these things but like hitting a brick wall.

Are you sure about the legality of this? Some would consider it rigging, but it is also no different from counting cards.

I think sharpshooting craps would be a more entertaining discussion. It's not illegal, the punter is in control, and I imagine a significant edge could be gained by it.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

2020, you're missing the point. If a croupier has a constistent action, then the result will be predictable. The question is whether they will be consistent.

It's not useful unless we are also given the information of when the croupier released the ball. Even that may not be useful, depending on greatly croupiers vary their actions.

Croupiers when the trun the wheel release the ball over the last hit pocket, some of them mix this up, but the basic tradition and training is to release the ball in this way and it is rare for this not to occur. It then becomes like water over a waterfall, the flow can often be consistent and detectable for profitable play.

While it may be true, I doubt your sample is significant. The human brain is not perfect, so it could easily be a memory bias or coincidence.

The observations I have made in conjuction with discussions with other long term players is pretty compelling to me.

Are you sure about the legality of this? Some would consider it rigging, but it is also no different from counting cards.

In what sense "legality" that the casino could not be cheating? Or that I should not speak of it?

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

This is the way i like to play Roulette...(Blue) column bets are typically $20 (2 to 1) & (Orange)
corner bet $5 (8 to 1) and ill alternate the outer column while always betting the middle.

The big advantage of this system is the fact that u have the majority of numbers covered
(about 70% of them) and if u can get a run of success u can do quite well without doing
anything spectacular...A run of 100% losses will hurt, but the maths is always with u.

 

[Mr J]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

The observations I have made in conjuction with discussions with other long term players is pretty compelling to me.

Are these advantage players of life-long roulette losers?

In what sense "legality" that the casino could not be cheating? Or that I should not speak of it?

It may not be able to be defined as cheating.

The big advantage of this system is the fact that u have the majority of numbers covered
(about 70% of them) and if u can get a run of success u can do quite well without doing
anything spectacular...A run of 100% losses will hurt, but the maths is always with u.

No it is not.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Are these advantage players of life-long roulette losers?



It may not be able to be defined as cheating.

Nothing to do with losing, just clear observations of outcomes when watching. I never play when the stacks are big and keep a low profile.

No the authorities probably allow it as they screw down the chances of pokie players

 

[Wagyu]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Just came across this thread from the Baccarat thread, and I could not help myself.

HINDSIGHT, you are on the right track but there is a lot of fluff in your theories. Never bet on even chances on "double 00" roulette, you are doubling your chances of losing. For that matter just stick with the French Wheel it is easier to work with than the American Wheel.

WAZA, you need to understand a basic element of the roulette ball. It always slows down to the exact same speed before dropping, hitting the hazzards and then falling between the frets to a winning number.

Your perspective of dealers is idealist at best. Dealers who are fresh out the training room will try to observe the procedures as close as possible as awkward dealers as they are. Some experinced dealers know their job so well they just don't give a ****.

There are 2 rules dealers should/must abide by when spinning up; 1) vary the speed of the wheel, 2)the ball must be released from the dealers fingers above the previously winning number. Some experienced dealers will control their game with a fine art and will not be bullied by expectant patrons. (that was advice). Regular players to roullete will appreciate a consistant dealer, as the players understand that a ball that falls in the same spot (a bias) is still determined by the hazzards and the final resting place of the ball.

Finally, if you find a run of 10 red or 12 even or 14 highs, GET ON IT. Don't play the hero and get a winner by picking the break in the run.

TREEMAN, players will see ONLY what they want to see and are often blinded by their own theories.

EXPLOD, you are correct in that if there is a different bias in a wheel for a clockwise spin to a anticlockwise spin. The wires that you saw were related to the wheel recognising where the ball has landed and then is displayed on the screen, nothing more, no calculations, no fancy algorithms, nothing. A 2.7% house edge is quite sufficient.


CUTTLEFISH, information is only good for 300 spins and not all tables are open at Star City 24/7. You may need to consider that a table may only open for 6hrs in an 8 hr shift twice a week which puts these stats at 2 weeks old, useless at best.

MR J, there is a practice where you, anyone can find bias in a wheel. Watch a wheel for 30 to 40 spins. (dealers have no impact on this study). Lets say you are standing right in front of the wheel and the ball consistently DROPS from a particular point in the wheel lets say the point is 2 o'clock. This is the bias. On each particular spin once you have found your biased wheel, watch the number that intersects with the ball at that bias point (2 oclock) as both the wheel and ball are spinning. You then need to do a mental calculation of the time it takes between intersects to gather the speed of the wheel. Dont laugh this can be done in your head in 2 seconds. This is called "wheel clocking". You can buy a device over the net which contains a press button (push it at every intersect) which goes in your pocket and an ear peice which tells you in SAT NAV voice what number to place your bets on. This process takes between 2 and 5 seconds and is best done working in pairs, 1 at the wheel and 1 at the table.

This particular behaviour is legal, however all Australian casinos have a rule that states no electronic devices are allowed at the tables. You can still lose using this method, just like you can lose counting cards on Blackjack. All that you are doing is reducing the house edge via clocking the wheel and counting cards and no one has been asked to leave a casino for using their heads.

Thankyou for the indulgence hour, hope I answered some of your queries from my experience.

 

[Wagyu]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

This is the way i like to play Roulette...(Blue) column bets are typically $20 (2 to 1) & (Orange)
corner bet $5 (8 to 1) and ill alternate the outer column while always betting the middle.

The big advantage of this system is the fact that u have the majority of numbers covered
(about 70% of them) and if u can get a run of success u can do quite well without doing
anything spectacular...A run of 100% losses will hurt, but the maths is always with u.

SO CYNICAL, Your column betting is flawed, you are now betting 2-1 against. If you lose 1 spin it will take you 2 winning spins to get back to square 1.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Just came across this thread from the Baccarat thread, and I could not help myself.

Thankyou for the indulgence hour, hope I answered some of your queries from my experience.

And thank you for a comprehensive and helpful post cheers explod

 

[Mr J]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

Nothing to do with losing, just clear observations of outcomes when watching.

It makes a difference to me, as an advantage player is likely to be far more credible than a long-term casino punter.

You then need to do a mental calculation of the time it takes between intersects to gather the speed of the wheel. Dont laugh this can be done in your head in 2 seconds. This is called "wheel clocking". You can buy a device over the net which contains a press button (push it at every intersect) which goes in your pocket and an ear peice which tells you in SAT NAV voice what number to place your bets on. This process takes between 2 and 5 seconds and is best done working in pairs, 1 at the wheel and 1 at the table.

This particular behaviour is legal, however all Australian casinos have a rule that states no electronic devices are allowed at the tables. You can still lose using this method, just like you can lose counting cards on Blackjack. All that you are doing is reducing the house edge via clocking the wheel and counting cards and no one has been asked to leave a casino for using their heads.

I know what it is, I was questiong the pracitcal application, as it requires croupiers to be consistent. I'm very aware of roulette prediction computers, as I looked into it myself. As for people being kicked out for using their heads, yes it has certainly happened numerous times. I've only head of card counters being banned, but I have no doubt that any advantage play would see a personal ban.

Finally, if you find a run of 10 red or 12 even or 14 highs, GET ON IT

You're suggesting that one can profit by riding a trend. I am very skeptical, as I highly doubt a casino would allow trend riding to be profitable. After all, it is typical of casino punters to get on the "hot" numbers and colours.

 

[Wagyu]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

MR J, roulette croupiers are often egocentrical wankers who think they are heros by talking up their dealing abilities when the ball lands as they predict. No different to walking up to a table and placing 1 bet of $5 on "17" and winning. They've got nothing. What effects do you think the STAR VIGRO, STAR CAPRICORN or any other cruise ship has on a roulette ball as it sways in the high seas?

Further, your scepticism is so valid in a casino. But, when you have 20-30 players all on Banker, (baccarat) and you place your bet on Player, look out the death stares will cut you in half from the other players on Banker. Just get on board, have some fun at the casino. After all it is a rich man's recreation perfected by the poor.

 

[explod]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

It makes a difference to me, as an advantage player is likely to be far more credible than a long-term casino punter.

As an obvious skeptic I believe it would make little difference what I said.

You're suggesting that one can profit by riding a trend. I am very skeptical, as I highly doubt a casino would allow trend riding to be profitable. After all, it is typical of casino punters to get on the "hot" numbers and colours.

That is one of the ways experieced players do win. On a run of blacks for example I have often backed it for a win when a number of other players have had stacks on the red. I pick my time and mark though as you get scowls as if you have pointed the bone so to speak.

Many years ago I when I started out I used to play a progression against the dozen furthest back as I had observed that a run against of more than 10 was unusual. Scammers have sold books on just this method.

Anyway I would wait till a dozen had not hit for 10 spins. I went very well about 6 months, won 5 grand at Juptiters whilsat on holidays. Back at Crown one day the progession had me at my limit of $9oo and lost it, all to try and recover my original $10. Gave that up quick but good learning. Have observed streaks where a dozen section has been passed 32 times. So yes there are streaks and trends.

 

[Wagyu]

Re: Roulettedds,chances,myths and fact

And thank you for a comprehensive and helpful post cheers explod

EXPLOD,

what is the number you get when all the numbers are added together on a Roulette wheel?

Also, starting at 3 red and moving clockwise, what do you get when you multiply all the numbers on a roulette wheel?

You have 30 seconds to answer both questions.