Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[lydonchandra]

Just curious, according to explod (article#6091), it's a win-win situation if we go long on gold now.
1. If the economy tanks, then it's a safe haven,
2. and if the stimulus works, inflation will go up and people buy gold.

Wouldn't the demand for gold will be reduced if the stimulus works ?
I am looking from the risk-aversion side here, where people will take higher risk and jump back into other commodities and equities. Or am I missing something?

 

[amory]

<< 2. and if the stimulus works, inflation will go up and people buy gold. >>

I too entertain some doubts about this simplified formula. if the stimulus works, should be good for the dollar. never mind inflation, its the dollar that holds the key to the POG. in an inverted sense of course.

IF the new admin is successful ... note big IF ... then the future of gold is not all that exciting. in the near term anyway.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

if the stimulus works it will have a positive impact on the dollar.

what is known, that the stimulus itself will be bad for the dollar.

weighing up the cross effect of those two things will provide the answer.

 

[Dangerous]

thanks for that article. enlightening indeed. have been buying gold companies, but not gold itself or the etf. how are you guys buying gold?

GOLD is a preference share - equal to a tenth of an ounce. It seems a good way to get into gold to me. Not a fan of the producers due to the lag in converting any price rises into profits.

BTW - check out kitco.com for some good pro-gold analysis.

Good luck and go for gold

 

[lydonchandra]

IMHO, buying or selling companies such as Lihir Gold, Sino Gold, or even Newcrest Mining seem to amplify the movement of the gold price itself. A few percent movement in gold price might correspond to 10%-20% of the share price of the companies...
The share price of Lihir gold, which has surged from the low of $1.6 up to $3.1 a few days ago, can be an example...

 

[Page]

Gold price is still uncertain cannot say were it is heading. It might also take the upper trend or reverse back. People are still uncertain about it. There are varieties of news in the market about gold. However, no one is able to give proper news about it.

 

[bankit]

IMHO, buying or selling companies such as Lihir Gold, Sino Gold, or even Newcrest Mining seem to amplify the movement of the gold price itself. A few percent movement in gold price might correspond to 10%-20% of the share price of the companies...
The share price of Lihir gold, which has surged from the low of $1.6 up to $3.1 a few days ago, can be an example...

Hi lydonchandra,

Go to my post of 20th December for an explanation and a reinforcement of your thoughts.

Bankit

 

[Trembling Hand]

Boy oh Boy. Those pesky Manipulators are giving the Cumber Rumba to gold

 

[cuttlefish]

Boy oh Boy. Those pesky Manipulators are giving the Cumber Rumba to gold

LOL - not looking pretty for longs right now is it. Watch for the short covering though

 

[Trembling Hand]

LOL - not looking pretty for longs right now is it. Watch for the short covering though

Yep she's a high vol open. It will be the highest vol hour for this contract.Ya wanna get your VSA out on that one. Just might be the reversal pattern needed. :

 

[BentRod]

dhkjashdihafihaf!

Always happens when I'm not home.

 

[cuttlefish]

Yep she's a high vol open. It will be the highest vol hour for this contract.Ya wanna get your VSA out on that one. Just might be the reversal pattern needed. :

I can't see volume on the gold charts I look at (the highly advanced platform of browing the kitco web site ... ). (which is probably a good thing ... a futures trading platform in my hands would be a recipe for the bread line, I'll leave that to yourself and the other experienced hands).

 

[GumbyLearner]

Looks like a consistent morning smackdown for the NY am.

 

[cuttlefish]

There must be some bad financial news coming for the US. They push the price down when they know there is some bad news imminent. Maybe there's going to be another financial iceberg unveiled ... (gee I've really caught onto this gold bug paranoia theme now - I'll be applying for GATA membership soon at this rate ).

 

[BentRod]

This price action might confirm the third lower high for Gold on the dailies. Does not look good if that is the case IMO.

Should have taken the short cue from that news article but I was still waiting for Bean to roll up. :

 

[GumbyLearner]

There must be some bad financial news coming for the US. They push the price down when they know there is some bad news imminent. Maybe there's going to be another financial iceberg unveiled ... (gee I've really caught onto this gold bug paranoia theme now - I'll be applying for GATA membership soon at this rate ).

The drop in price today does look sudden maybe somethings up! :dunno:
I try to keep abreast of a lot of the diehard gold advocates but I can see where GATA is coming from when you look at volume COMEX contracts, backwardation etc..

The attached chart from the US FED does appear salient for now though

 

[BentRod]

Wonder if it has legs?

On board XAU/USD from 827 with tight stops.

 

[BentRod]

Out at B.E.

Interested to see what happens from here...Fiber looking ready to fall out of bed too.

 

[The Edge]

Monday 12 January 2009

Just as knowledge of the trend is indispensable, repeating the following conjecture
from cuttlefish is equally important:

> Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint
> on a stock affect trading psychology around it. (actually I've seen WaneL
> post a subsection of Murphy's Law about posting live's trades - tends to
> ring true some of the time).

In attempting to handle a trade in gold, while at the same time providing an
ongoing explanantion re marketactivity, I shot myself in the foot and exited from
an excellent short position. Since, I did get back in, advantageously, but
without commentary here so as not to interfere with the position. Gold
continues to act as expected from my original premise for going short.

I could see the market developing, and there was nothing wrong with the activity
to cause alarm, but, as Shakespeare says, "Thinking makes is so," and my
thinking, as expressed here, put clouds in my coffee.

Our brains are enormously complex and extraordinarily capable in processing
information, equal to, or surpassing that of a computer. By articulating the
whys and wherefores, it requires a stoppage of the free flow of thought in
order to put the thinking into cohesive sentence structures.

Once I cleared myself of the task explaining ongoing market activity in post
format, I was able to let my thought process flow unencumbered and rely upon
natural instinct, that which is too fast, occuring in instants, as flashes, yet
sufficient to give the brain faculties enough to go on and reach a decision
without being able to express it in words. Call it what one will, gut instinct,
inspiration, etc, it works when left unimpeded.

Discussing one's trades, positions, reasoning, etc, short-circuits that process.
Leave well enough alone, and tend to the business at hand.

It is for this reason that I never ask anyone's opinion about a trade. The asking,
in itself, already creates a seed of doubt, in a subtle way.

One person's opinion.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Sound better than Pink Floyd...

Pink Floyd warned people these guys, dont need too!



Who is the fool in this economic calamity?