AIO - Asciano Limited

[chilliaa]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Just the belief that things move in cycles, look at the resources boom its a cycle, look at the 1960's sharemarket, nobody anticipated higher inflation, look at the post 1990's sharemarket, nobody forecast a long stretch of low inflation.

I agree with you that its very hard to forecast interest rates, but at the end of the day for a company like AIO that is being valued based on low long term interest rates, i ask you, what if this doesnt happen, what if interest rates go up in the long term.
What insurance policy (if you are a long term shareholder) do you have to hedge the risk?
I am not going to pay current market prices, given that i cant get insurance. On the other hand if the prices really plumited, then the risk of future higher interest rates would be 'priced in'.

 

[chilliaa]

Re: AIO - Asciano

This doesnt apply to only AIO, if you are really a long term based investor (and not because you are a trader who gets stuck with a stock out of the money which then becomes an 'investment'), the first issue is preservation of capital, the next is return on the capital.

What many investors forget, is that an over priced share is nearly as hazadous to long term wealth as a share in a 'weak' company.
Thats why i actually quite like Macquarie Bank at the moment, i have no idea where its share price will be in the near future. But what i do like is so long as the company doesnt go bankrupt, the current price is valuing the company for low future growth. If Macquarie does maintain its long term earnings growth then its a double bonus, if not and it goes through a period of below average growth, the current price already reflects this.
So in a sense i have some form of 'insurance'.

 

[Nicks]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Asciano just had a single trade for 1,000,000. It has to be a sell one would think. Down 15% again just today!

I know MD Mark Rowsthorn said in the report that he has no significant Margin Leverage and is not under threat of getting a Margin Call - but that's what Eddy Groves said also!

Seriously, Mark Rowsthorn has so much of AIO that if he did get that call AIO would TANK similar to ABS (and by the way the AIO SP has tanked this is the sort of conditions perfect for a Margin call).

But, just saying Mark Rowsthorn is not at risk (and usually when they feel the need to say this one questions why) is not good enough. What about other directors? would be interesting to see if therte are any substantial holder announcements soon. A sell of 1,000,000 shares would be $40 Million.

Thoughts?

 

[IFocus]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Gapped down on open and now hammered 18% so far this morning some thing is seriously wrong......I wonder if the hedge fund / short selling excuse will get trotted out again?

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Gapped down on open and now hammered 18% so far this morning some thing is seriously wrong......I wonder if the hedge fund / short selling excuse will get trotted out again?

After hearing their report yesterday, I was surprised it didn't get smashed even further.

I'm not sure how this company can survive with the way it is losing money, hand over fist. It's lost 2/3rds of its value in about 9 months. Something seriously wrong indeed.

 

[waz]

Re: AIO - Asciano

AIO has released their full half year report today (last night), and obviously the market does not like it.

Im quickly going through it, but cant really find anything more damaging then when we already know. Can anyone else see it.

AIO has lost more than yesterdays speculative gains. Someone has seen something they dont like, but what?

I wonder what would have happened if they released it before 10am yesterday.

I wish I had more time to read these reports, grrr.

 

[Muschu]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Hi
On my understanding, at today's date,

ABN Amro rates AIO as Buy - Target price is $6.75
Merrill Lynch rates AIO as Buy - Target price is $7.50

Any comment on this? Big gap from current price. Can these recommendations be given any credence?
Opinions appreciated.

Regards

R

 

[Nicks]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Toll spun off most of their debt into Asciano - I wouldnt think this was a good thing in the current economic climate.

 

[Muschu]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Toll spun off most of their debt into Asciano - I wouldnt think this was a good thing in the current economic climate.

Thanks Nicks. I was having a very "light" re-think on AIO but the debt level issue seems to be an impediment. I don't have AIO, do have TOL and am probably more inclined to add to the latter at some point.
I appreciate your comments.
R

 

[Bruza]

Re: AIO - Asciano

What on earth is happening now!

It should be a darling that everyone wants a bit of, with the assets, (almost)
monopoly, etc, etc.

 

[urgalzmine]

Re: AIO - Asciano

What on earth is happening now!

It should be a darling that everyone wants a bit of, with the assets, (almost)
monopoly, etc, etc.

not quite my friend... TOL put all its debt into this company when it bought Patricks, it has alot of assets but lots of debt as well

 

[Bruza]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Yea i realise that but, IT'S assets

TO-days plunge?

Insane!!

This Co has hard to replicate assets, which should elevate it above today's fiasco.

 

[CAB SAV]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Market freaked when AIO advised they propose(need) to do a rights issue(1/2) to raise $1bill. in order to fund growth & reduce debt. Oversold.

 

[mshepherd]

Re: AIO - Asciano

TPG Capital and Global Infrastructure Partners. Proposed to buy AIO at $4.40 trading halt requested after another 13% jump in price. currently at $4.70 above the offer price, which suggests opinions are leaning towards a higher price offer.

 

[Sultan of Swing]

Re: AIO - Asciano

I've just been having a look at the company report released today.

2 questions....

I was under the impression that a company report had to have a list of the top 20 shareholders in it, is that correct?

Secondly, If it's in there, I can't find it. Have I missed it or am I right in saying that its not in there?

Thanks

 

[copper_hot]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Anyone watching this? Down to 2.05 today..

In my view another takeover offer by TPG is very credible.. the last offer which was subject to due diligence (and was subsequently denied by asciano's board) was for 4.50 from memory..

News also that TPG's CEO is on his way to Australia this weekend.. apparently for the melbourne cup (through Myer connection), but I highly doubt that the CEO of one of the worlds biggest private equity houses would come to melbourne for a horse race during one of the most brutal economic conditions of our generation.

Also coming up is asset sales that will raise approx. $1 billion that will no doubt be used to pay down the company's massive debt load.

Has many contracts denominated in the USD so a weakening AUD will translate positively FY09.

I would love to hear everyones thoughts because I am very interested in jumping onto this puppy?

 

[cbrendan]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Anyone watching this? Down to 2.05 today..

In my view another takeover offer by TPG is very credible.. the last offer which was subject to due diligence (and was subsequently denied by asciano's board) was for 4.50 from memory..

News also that TPG's CEO is on his way to Australia this weekend.. apparently for the melbourne cup (through Myer connection), but I highly doubt that the CEO of one of the worlds biggest private equity houses would come to melbourne for a horse race during one of the most brutal economic conditions of our generation.

Also coming up is asset sales that will raise approx. $1 billion that will no doubt be used to pay down the company's massive debt load.

Has many contracts denominated in the USD so a weakening AUD will translate positively FY09.

I would love to hear everyones thoughts because I am very interested in jumping onto this puppy?

Hey mate,

I bought in when it got to 2.06 and I'm thinking similar things.

Although the figures arn't all good, I still think there is easy money to be made at the prices it is now.

Any other opinions?

 

[awg]

Re: AIO - Asciano

from memory Rowsthorn had a very large stake, almost a blocking stake, could be wrong there...but I dont think he wanted to sell last time, cause he would realize a big loss.

I sold out ages ago at $4.85, due to debt level and the stock was tanking.

I reckon Rowsthorn would be a unable to prevent with SP as is,
sorrry not sure of his stake, should be on ASX website

 

[bluboy]

Re: AIO - Asciano

from memory Rowsthorn had a very large stake, almost a blocking stake, could be wrong there...but I dont think he wanted to sell last time, cause he would realize a big loss.

I sold out ages ago at $4.85, due to debt level and the stock was tanking.

I reckon Rowsthorn would be a unable to prevent with SP as is,
sorrry not sure of his stake, should be on ASX website

I'm pretty sure he still has 71million shares. (With 1.1million options with an expiry price of $8.43 in 2012)

I wouldn't be surprised if they were trying to get a $8.50 buy price from TPG and co. If they will get it, while the share price is hovering around $2 with a bleak outlook.... Goodluck to 'em!

 

[Sean K]

Re: AIO - Asciano

Cripes, absolutely garotted yesterday.

Not many worse than this over the past year, except BNB maybe.

Why was I not short....


Share sell-off as analyst attack savages Asciano
Blair Speedy | November 12, 2008

ASCIANO last night rushed to reassure investors that it was under no pressure to refinance debt.

This followed the port and railways infrastructure group's share price crashing to levels that left the company effectively "worthless" according to one analyst.


And how the hell does this analyst keep his job:

The sell-off was sparked by a massive downgrade from Citigroup analyst Sanjay Magotra, who slashed his target price on the stock from $6.08 to just 82c and reversed his trading recommendation from "buy" to "sell".

So, up until yesterday, this idiot had a valuation of $6.08 and a BUY recommendation on it.