XAO Technical Analysis

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

We all luv ya techy.Nothing wrong with calling a spade a spade.

You hav'in a dig?

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

I have picked most of the major issues well enough to trade so far.

This is just absolutely stunning - a real time case study in cognitive bias.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

Do you reckon there would be a chance that any analyst worth his salt would wait for confirmation of any alert regardless of method used.
Opinions are posted everywhere in various forms both technically and Fundamentally---confirmation of proof of accuracy either comes or passes.
Thats analysis.
If anyone is doppey enough to take any analysis direct from a faceless post on a forum ---what can I say.

Alright, church of Elliottologist sermon is over...lets get back on track. You called a retracement and the market fell almost 10%. I commented that I've made a similar error in the past and I think it's one of the classic temptations of Elliott Wave. I've seen so-called pros and amateurs (like me) make the same mistake. That's all. No verbal attack, no compaign against EW.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
With a reversal of 700+ points.

So where were we.
Analysis has alerted.
Cautious rally before final capitulation.

The confirmation we didnt see yesterday I'm sure we will see on Monday.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
With a reversal of 700+ points.

So where were we.
Analysis has alerted.
Cautious rally before final capitulation.

The confirmation we didnt see yesterday I'm sure we will see on Monday.

Haven't they eased shorting rules? Was it just panicking shorts covering before the close that lifted the chart, then left it with no "steam", so it sank back 250+ pts in last 1/2 hour?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Haven't they eased shorting rules? Was it just panicking shorts covering before the close that lifted the chart, then left it with no "steam", so it sank back 250+ pts in last 1/2 hour?

Those that had shorts could always cover them.
You couldn't take a short position in any US financials,you could in anything else.

Yes it could well have been short covering.
But for the first time I think we are seeing some application of the brakes.
But hey Ive been ever so slightly mistaken on one other recent occasion that I can remember .

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: XAO Analysis

For the first time in a long time Wall street saw some genuine buying in the latter part of the session.
With a reversal of 700+ points.

Long at 7902 (+1 sigh) 1137 p.m. last night and out out at 8809 0637 a.m. this morning for a massive (off one position) 907 points. Scalping sux. and oh yeah am I a happy chappy.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.

When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.

When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....

Market focus is on the G7 and IMF meetings, belief that the authorities just cannot turn a blind eye to this innate volatility and widespread investor capitulation sparked the late rally which shocked and surprised everyone. Some talk of the "plunge protection team" at work, but it didn"t gain much traction. The fact that Japanese life insurer Yamamoto went bankrupt last night has given some confidence that even the BoJ will be on board for a unified rate cut. Markets are twitchy and inaction by the authorities is simply not an option.

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

On reflection ... the inexplicable run up on the DOW may have been purely a *hope* run in anticipation of GWB offering manna from heaven. The timings appear to match.

When that *surprisingly* (sic) didn't happen, the inevitable charge for the exits occurred. Maybe if the speech had been timed an hour earlier, the DOW would have ended up significantly lower at the close....

short cover rally?

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

But for the first time I think we are seeing some application of the brakes.

I tend to agree, there was definitely buying going on last night.Still not a bottom but interest is starting to show .

I was stopped out of all shorts last night also.

We need strong trends to profit substantially, the past 3 weeks was a great opportunity to top up the account balance.

If last night was a short term reversal we should see volatile choppy trading conditions return.With a tendency to a slightly up/sideways movement.

I still like the Nasdaq chart below best, very clear concise price action.Notice the gap through the retracement zones.This should get filled before the final ? leg down.

The Nasdaq has lost 46% in the past year.The herds are still panicking shouting CRASH from the roof tops.

Maybe an almost 50% downturn doesn't count as a crash

 

[Porper]

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry, forgot to attach Chart.Here it is.

 

[Kauri]

Re: XAO Analysis

Long at 7902 (+1 sigh) 1137 p.m. last night and out out at 8809 0637 a.m. this morning for a massive (off one position) 907 points. Scalping sux. and oh yeah am I a happy chappy.

have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... by that you must have given back all of the massive profits before catching the final hours rally to scalp them back??? braver man than I.. who do you trade with..and what size is the YM contract??

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... by that you must have given back all of the massive profits before catching the final hours rally to scalp them back??? braver man than I.. who do you trade with..and what size is the YM contract??

Cheers
...........Kauri

Here is the YM which is $5 per point. I was trading that last night. And I got to say it must of been one of the nastiest moves I have seen in a long time. The drop through 8000 to 7900 was basically instant.

 

[Broadway]

Re: XAO Analysis

2.95 Billion shares traded last night in the US. One of the highest days on record.

And BHP had volume late as well.

Happy hunting!

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: XAO Analysis

Here is the YM which is $5 per point. I was trading that last night. And I got to say it must of been one of the nastiest moves I have seen in a long time. The drop through 8000 to 7900 was basically instant.

Sounds like you got a bit hurt.

Was noticing the YM just gapping 10,15,20 points in the middle of nowhere all throughout the session. Insane. Never seen anything like it, but it sounds like what the HSI is like all the time.

Even the ES was moving half a point plus at a time. Crazy stuff. Wouldn't touch that with a 50 foot barge pole.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Elliot wave or not, a-b-c or 1-2-3, whatever, the market is revaluing at the moment, not panicking.

If people think this is panic, I would suggest they should change the profession.

This post has had me pondering for a while.
My acid reply deserves an apology to Tex.

After considered thought I now agree.

What we are seeing is a reversion to equilibrium.
Its not panic as he says.
When there is such a push way way above an equilibrium and in this case its incredibly severe the return to an equilibrium HAS to be just as severe.
That's exactly whats happening and like 99.9% of the population I to have been caught up in the enormity of the situation and seen this as panic.
Simply its not.

The wall is coming up at 200K brakes applied at 20 meters and now the resultant unavoidable collision.
The impact is happening the aftermath is yet to come.
Who if any survive and those that do how long before they recover?

TEX.
My apologies and thanks for planting a seed.

 

[treefrog]

Re: XAO Analysis

But hey Ive been ever so slightly mistaken on one other recent occasion that I can remember .

..........and an awful lot that you've forgotten tech

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

..........and an awful lot that you've forgotten tech

Yeh that happens when I get something right!

 

[michael_selway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh that happens when I get something right!

So Tech, technically, where do you think XAO/DOW will go in the coming weeks/months?

thx

MS