GCR - Golden Cross Resources

[Trader Paul]

Posted 05052008:



Hi folks,

GCR ... has been on the move, since mid-April 2008 .....

..... expecting more positive moves over the next couple of weeks:

09-12052008 ... minor and positive light on GCR

16052008 ... minor cycle

19-20052008 ... positive news expected here.

03-04062008 ... more news expected, triggered by lunar cycle

10062008 ... positive spotlight on GCR ... 2 time cycles here ...

13062008 ... significant and positive aspect.

19062008 ... negative cycle expected ... could be B!!!G

02-04072008 ... positive news expected ... 2 time cycles here.

11072008 ... negative spotlight on GCR.

have a great day

paul


=====

Hi folks,

GCR ..... responded to ASX speeding ticket today, but our time
cycle analysis suggests, that there's more positive news/moves
for GCR, over the next month or so .....

have a great day

paul



=====

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Good response to the sppeding ticket,

They could have just been slack and said we know nothing

I especially liked these bits

LGDI is a Melbourne-based company, whose Chief Executive Officer is Mr Joseph Gutnick. Legend’s share price has risen recently from US$2.55 closing on 30 April 2008 to US$4.46 closing on 5 May 2008. At the 5 May price, LGDI had a market capitalisation of approximately US$800 million.

A possible reason for the increase in GCR’s share price is that LGDI recently published, at www.ldgi.net, its May 2008 presentation, which at page 3 lists the phosphate resources at the Lily Creek, Quita Creek, Sherrin Creek and Highland Plains prospects, all located on GCR’s 100%-owned Mt Isa properties farmed-out to LGDI. The resources on the GCR properties equate to approximately 30% of the total contained P2O5 in LGDI’s published resources.

 

[Sean K]

Nice work LN. Was a great breakout a few days ago. Congrats on another short term success story!! Wonder how far it has to run?

 

[Whiskers]

Good work mod. :axt:

I was wondering what that one was all about.

Back to business... a couple of sales back to .049 to fill the gap up yesterday.

Should see it move on to higher sustainable levels now.

 

[goldmandane]

YT, your claim about LDGI having its share price mostly based upon the GCR project is quite incorrect if i amr eading things right.

Firstly jsut so its not like im stonewalling you here or anything, I think you were saying thats there only main major project.

Anyway looking at today speeding ticket and reading on there website, it looks like perhaps their main project is lady annie, and that is whats driving the share price?? Not sure Im at work so havent got time to look into it properly, so maybe thought you ahd an answer straight off

 

[sydneysider]

YT, your claim about LDGI having its share price mostly based upon the GCR project is quite incorrect if i amr eading things right.

Firstly jsut so its not like im stonewalling you here or anything, I think you were saying thats there only main major project.

Anyway looking at today speeding ticket and reading on there website, it looks like perhaps their main project is lady annie, and that is whats driving the share price?? Not sure Im at work so havent got time to look into it properly, so maybe thought you ahd an answer straight off

U are correct. LDGI intends to develop Lady Annie first. The GCR tenements need to be drilled and bought up to JORC standard first. In any event the market is now valuing a 20% free carried interest in 500 MT of phosphate at around 1 cent (631,000,000 shares) = $6.31 million. Whereas the U.S. market is valuing the same asset at multiples of the local valuation. There is a study on the LDGI website that evaluates some of the production parameters of Lady Annie, that may shed some light on valuing the GCR tenements. IMHO GCR is extremely undervalued at 5 cents.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like we got our fade or taper today, along with the general market weakness. Getting back to accumulate levels again?

 

[Fed23]

The stock is going down today, doesn't look good for the rest of the day.

Down almost 20%. Tossing up weather to top up or sell

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Goldman,

Your misunderstanding me, please re-read what I said!

I said Legends only/main project is its Phosphate at Mt Isa area

I then worked out what EV the US where giving Legend for each tonne of phosphate ore and extrapolated this to GCR

Also my last post is pretty much a copy and paste for the speeding ticket so don't shoot the mesenger

 

[Whiskers]

The stock is going down today, doesn't look good for the rest of the day.

Down almost 20%. Tossing up weather to top up or sell

I'm with Uncle Festivus... top up levels.

As I posted earlier there was a gap up at open yesterday. It also opened above the bollinger band. So what we are seeing is short term day traders, some lots of 1m to 1.5 m dumped, as they do when volume slows down.

For me though, it will probably finish the day in the low 5's and maybe trade tomorrow at similar levels. By then the daily candle will be well within the bollinger band again ready for the day traders to have another go.

I always refer to the weekly chart for the main trend. For me the fact that the gap up has been filled, the weekly chart is consistant with the fundamentals... still indicates plenty of upside potential.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Whiskers

The attributable EV at Mt Isa from Legend is still over 10c,

So just sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination

 

[Whiskers]

Whiskers

The attributable EV at Mt Isa from Legend is still over 10c,

So just sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination

Yes indeed YT.

I watch cycles, sort of like Trader Paul. I happen to agree with him from his earlier post, that Friday and Monday will be good/significant days.

But as TP says and we know, there is also plenty of other activity happening which is likely to report over the next couple of months and which has the potential to make 10c look cheap.

 

[Fed23]

Time SSN Price Quantity
16:10 517,912 4.6 224,000
16:10 517,911 4.6 64,000
16:10 517,910 4.6 532,000
16:10 517,909 4.6 180,000
15:59 511,792 4.8 82,000

Closing trades. Im still new to this but how do trades after 4pm go thru?

Thats almost 1million shares traded after business.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Time SSN Price Quantity
16:10 517,912 4.6 224,000
16:10 517,911 4.6 64,000
16:10 517,910 4.6 532,000
16:10 517,909 4.6 180,000
15:59 511,792 4.8 82,000

Closing trades. Im still new to this but how do trades after 4pm go thru?

Thats almost 1million shares traded after business.

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_hours_asx.htm

 

[ColB]

Not happy to see GCR fall from high of 0.060 to 0.046 today after buying at
0.041 on 4/5/08. I bought this after reading YT's analysis and like Goldman I might as well have a dip at YT. It must be his fault! Seriously, those that like to continually question YT's posts should go back through time ( a couple of years) like I did and test his selection of trades. You will also find, as a result of reading those threads that there are also many other members along the way that didn't have the patience or conviction to stay the course. I did this analysis and is why I am happy to jump on YT's bandwagon. I hope in time I can acquire some of the knowledge and skill that he imparts and offer something to other members in return. Until that happens good luck to everyone holding GCR. I purchased another lot at 0.047 today (didn't quite pick the bottom!)

PS: This is not a paid promotion for the YT Fan Club

 

[Fed23]

Not happy to see GCR fall from high of 0.060 to 0.046 today after buying at
. I purchased another lot at 0.047 today (didn't quite pick the bottom!)

I got a decent amount in the last trades before close @ .048, **** me to see it dip from it's high, but I managed to get some at 0.037 so I'm gonna hope tomorrow is a good day.

But YT has done heaps of analysis on this and I'd like to thank him.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

PS: This is not a paid promotion for the YT Fan Club

Then I can only assume YT was busy accumulating in the week before his first post? Am I getting warm YT?

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Then I can only assume YT was busy accumulating in the week before his first post? Am I getting warm YT?

lol well we're all here to make money aren't we?

Thankfully as some other ASF'ers have pointed out I try my best to make us all money,

Cleary had you paid attention to my first few posts and bought in the 3's you would be a happy camper,

I get the feeling the stock is being traded far too much though, so like I said previously

"sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination"

 

[Spineli]

On a lighter note ASF'ers just look at Young Trader's display picture, admire it and have a laugh......

 

[sydneysider]

lol well we're all here to make money aren't we?

Thankfully as some other ASF'ers have pointed out I try my best to make us all money,

Cleary had you paid attention to my first few posts and bought in the 3's you would be a happy camper,

I get the feeling the stock is being traded far too much though, so like I said previously

"sit back and enjoy the ride, it will be bumpy as it looks like alot of traders have jumped aboard but I'm sure we should reach our destination"

I agree that GCR is being frenetically daytraded. The hourly / ten day "tics" clearly show that the stock price had "busted" out the top of its trend and now pulled substantially back to the point where all the indicators are flashing green. See chart below.

On a fundamental basis Legend/Gutnik is valued at US$750 million based on the development of Lady Annie to produce annualized profit of US$700 million from the sale of 5,000,000 tonnes of phosphate at 32-34%. Assuming that they give up 50% of this, they are selling on a forward PE of roughly TWO TIMES. IF GCR's Lilly or Sherrin get developed, they will produce for over 35 years at the same rate as Lady Annie with a US$375 million capex. This means that GCR will get an estimated US$140 million per year from its 20% free carried interest. Applying the same valuation principle to GCR as to Legend then GCR is worth very close to 50 cents. Early last year GCR paid 5 cents per share ($3.3 million worth) to buy these leases via King Eagle. At yesterdays close the Legend deal was worth minus 1/2 cent ( minus $1,650,000) off the original purchase price of King Eagle. IMHO GCR is worth somewher 10-15 cents AND when a phosphate finance offtake agreement is announced the stock will explode above that price. IF u remember how Gutnik developed Great Central then a deal on the GCR tenements is closer than u think. The current trading is all weird and wonderful and totally disconnected from reality and simply based on a rear mirror multi year view of trading in GCR shares.