ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Evangeline]

Thanks for all your informative posts agentm. I took a modest position in ADI a couple of weeks back on the recommendation that one of the major brokers
'was confident' that adi were on to something big in Texas.

I have been following this forum ever since with great interest. Do you think the current market correction will have a negative impact on the upside here?

Eva

 

[resourceboom]

Thanks for all the piccies AgentM. Good to have the google earth piccies too, even though when I asked previously you said they wouldn't be useful ...post 1161

 

[Agentm]

hey eva..

if major broker is recommending the share on the thinking adi are onto something big.. then maybe we may see some action soon.. buyers better get in fast.. kunde 3 is a lot further along than what eme is letting on..

i hear quite a few larger buyers are on the sidelines,, one came in the other day as we had 1 million shares traded on that day.., so 50% there i guess for that one.. but smaller holders are getting the jump here realizing the sugarkane is not worth anything like .70.. hold if you thinking of selling,, news is coming.. AUT just told their holders in no uncertain terms..

i cant predict markets that well on corrections.. this share has it own path i think.. guided by the understandings that people are getting and the ones like me that have dug a little further see a history.. a long history.. and boy oh boy are there ever some big names on these acreages!! and some amazing activity that no one out there is aware of..

how confident am i??? i see nothing out there thats telling me that the sugarkane is a tiny 50bcf play.. nothing at all.. if it was i would be out by now.. i know of a few companies about to double.. i would be on them and long gone ages ago if this was 50bcf..

do i see 150bcf??? not possible,, you dont put 15 years of planning, have conocophillips drill 2 test wells, have secret wells, drill 2 horizontals, put a well on ice, thats SL1, which is in such a pivotal (central) position in the overall scheme of things... this is not done for 150 bcf..

but put it this way.. if the jvp's dont start declaring their hand real soon,
i am not going to sit around and not release my observations.. the average investor may know about SL1, SL2, Kunde 1 and Kunde 3.. (called mumbo jumbo block A well by EME) but thats only a part of whats happened..

but if thats what people want to believe then so be it.. i dont believe anything i read out there,, what they write on their reports are passages passed by legal teams to pass the asx listing regulations.. you cant say too much or your inflating the picture, so you say sweet little of nothing and get by that way.. (which is 100 times what TCEI wanted to be out there). the well logs out there tell me a different picture, the one couch oil says..

NT, for example, is supposed to be a 50 or 80 bcf play,, you not seeing 15 years of planning,, secret wells, major oil companies like conocophillips all over it!!

i am going to get absolutely chastised and ridiculed for this i know..

2tcf is what couch oil says we have.. i back him 100%,, i am in for that as a minimum.. thats me, my choice and my research... please dyor AND all IMHO... OK!!!!

 

[Evangeline]

Thanks agentm. It is my feeling too that if adi is sitting on such a large discovery then it will be bluesky no matter what the market at large is doing. My understanding was that the recommendation I heard was more or less on the qt. I thought perhaps it was just one of those rumours you hear - ramping up a stock, but when I read your posts I was more intrigued - you have obviously put in a lot of yards and have held for a long time.

It does puzzle me that if the brokers think adi is so big, why has there not been more action? Perhaps waiting for the correction to pick them up cheaper before September?

Eva

 

[Agentm]

when couch started posting 100 wells, i was fairly suspicious, and the more i wanted to discount his statement, the more i found to support it..

to this day i have not found anything that puts his claim of oil, and his 100 wells for oil as incorrect. i look at the XTO field 6 miles noth east,, with half the porosity, and theres over 100 there on about a tenth of the acreage..

now we have a second well called SL2 going horizontal at the play and not having tested SL1?? whats that about..?? there must be enough in the wirelines and enough in the 3d's to get the JVP's onto the next well in a very smart fashion.. very bullish.. and not how ADI/ARQ normally operate..

some jvp's are capital raising after having allready done so in may 07.. and we see they have enough cash for many wells to commence.. very very bullish, and all after kunde 3 was tested..

it seems absolutely obvious to me that the massive gas kicks on the sugarkane play was enough to see them plan more wells without testing anything at SL1.. this has to mean the same sugarkane play at kunde 3 is being targeted at SL2..

After drilling through the sugarkane, and wireline testing SL1 last september, the debate to go on must have been intense.. imagine risking losing a well like SL1 was to drill ahead at a very high risk play like the sands in comparison.. none the less, late sept 2006, they put in a permit to drill to 21,000 feet, and got potentially a nice play there, just not commercial flow.. and EME has hinted at further long term looks at the sands..

Sugarkane is genuine, and significant, and in no way is it 150bcf, for the amount of miles this play extends, 20,000 acres just for the eastern section. this playis exactly what couchy was quoted by the CP and TCEI camp.. 2tcf as a real eventuality.. he told his investors, we saw it, the jvp's got very nervuos as acreages were not signed, the couch website was shut down..

the thing thats holding the money on the jvp's is cold hard data.. once the SL1 test results come in then there is no holding back,, until then,, they will wait,, thats my view..

if your selling ADI in the next few weeks think real hard about it.. some major news is about to break, and the jvp's seem to be prepared to start revealing some details in the very near term.. hold long and hang on i think is the way to go with the jvp's..

in the near term i feel the shares will be sought by smaller investors who are prepared to put forward some cash at a slightly higher risk threashold, and they i feel will make the biggest gains..

 

[Agentm]

i heard on HC that there are no secret wells..

i posted a reply and the UK guys who watch HC found it in 5 minutes..

interesting,, i think the whole sugarkane field is very interesting, i have done a lot of research, as no doubt a few others have..

I can say the study i saw done by mr campbell fell far short in my view. absolutely no research on the play, no mention of the XTO field 6 miles north at the same horizon.. 150+ wells there..

as we all know thre are no secret wells and we all know the name of the well TCEI drilled in 2002.. and i guess my research must be flawed

I see some jvp's have mentioned the well, no one has picked up on it..

as far as i am concerned its part and parcel of the sugarkane exploration..

 

[Agentm]

as its being discussed in other forums,,

i look at the adi announcement saying the sugarkane find at kunde 1 is the same as the ones in SL1..

looking geographically, the trend of plays are usually on the path of the arrows.. fields south and north at the same depths are folowing this trend..

this may explain why sugarkane could be potentially enormous.. if it trends south as well as east west the field(s) becomes mindblowing in potential..

maybe you can see why i hold this share right now.. ADI say they have the eastern part of sugarkane.

how big is this???

 

[jackohelp]

agentm> did you notice kellner gas unit#6, XTO is incorrectly identified as 11.5 miles SW of Campbellton on the permit but when you look at the tif file it is just over the Atacosa/Karnes border which of course is NE of Campbellton.!

 

[resourceboom]

Hi Jacko, welcome to ASF with your first post above.......
If you look to the top of your screen, you should have 1 private message outstanding !!

 

[Agentm]

resourceboom..

"TCEI had previously drilled a well in this area which encountered gas shows in the Edwards Formation and the shallower Cretaceous carbonate formation"

you posted this in the HC forum and no real response..

this forum sees little response to the 2002 well also..

If AUt say the well, which was drilled vertical, then redrilled again offset, has got shows in the upper cretaceous.

in live oak, at the other end of the same edwards trend pogue is on, poineer has just put in gas well completion

 

[Agentm]

ALL GOOD NEWS..

So here is what i can figure.. as it just doesnt make sense..

i have been going over these reports for weeks, the sugarkane report, and the sugarloaf 1 report.. they are basically repeats of old data with subtle differences here and there..

when i pull up the well reports for Kunde 1, and compare kunde 1, and all its well data to SL1.. i see the same thing they do,, i see sugarkane at the same levels.. but theres more,, we have shows further down..

"For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance."


now the deepest zone (edwards) is counted in the on our well of the three still remaining is the edwards isnt it? the upper two zones are sugarkane


this is where it doesnt make sense.. 11550 feet for SL2 is way short of the third shows in SL1... that to me says SL2 is drilling ahead only for the sugarkane!!

SL1 has to have multiple plays... we have edwards and sugarkane

these guys may be getting clever!!

so they are testing the edwards, and doing long term testing on the edwards play at SL1 next.. (refer couch oil logs 12400 - 13100) which matches productive zones both 6 miles north (XTO) and also to the south, enduring, pioneer etc.

at the same time they drill away with SL2 at the sugarkane horizontally.. max depth only 11,550 feet. this is done because they already know from the wirelines and the kunde 3 well that the horizontal into sugarkane will be very successful..



Although the upper zone of possible pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well has not yet been flow tested, evidence from wire-line logs, gas log and regional seismic interpretation suggests the upper zone in Sugarloaf-1 is likely to be within the Sugarkane Field.

I am thinking 2 plays here,, edwards and suagrkane...

Each time they say something, its never too clear, but when you lok at drilling depths and logs it doesnt match up,, i could be barking up the wrong tree,, but i cant see anything else but 2 plays tight now..

So are the 100 wells for oil the sugarkane or the edwards??? at kunde 1 they produce oil. so if couchy is right, 100 horizontal wells!! thats frightening!!

All imho and dyor..



Nice news on the other fronts,,

Yemen coming on..

Indonesia starting...

JVP with Sun resources!! NICE!!

plenty of value
​

 

[barney]

ALL GOOD NEWS..

So here is what i can figure.. as it just doesnt make sense..

i have been going over these reports for weeks, the sugarkane report, and the sugarloaf 1 report.. they are basically repeats of old data with subtle differences here and there..

when i pull up the well reports for Kunde 1, and compare kunde 1, and all its well data to SL1.. i see the same thing they do,, i see sugarkane at the same levels.. but theres more,, we have shows further down..

"For engineering reasons the deepest zone will be tested first. Should any of the zones of interest produce hydrocarbons at commercial rates, it is likely that the zone would be placed on long term production test to assess reservoir performance."


now the deepest zone (edwards) is counted in the on our well of the three still remaining is the edwards isnt it? the upper two zones are sugarkane


this is where it doesnt make sense.. 11550 feet for SL2 is way short of the third shows in SL1... that to me says SL2 is drilling ahead only for the sugarkane!!

SL1 has to have multiple plays... we have edwards and sugarkane

these guys may be getting clever!!

so they are testing the edwards, and doing long term testing on the edwards play at SL1 next.. (refer couch oil logs 12400 - 13100) which matches productive zones both 6 miles north (XTO) and also to the south, enduring, pioneer etc.

at the same time they drill away with SL2 at the sugarkane horizontally.. max depth only 11,550 feet. this is done because they already know from the wirelines and the kunde 3 well that the horizontal into sugarkane will be very successful..



Although the upper zone of possible pay in the Sugarloaf-1 well has not yet been flow tested, evidence from wire-line logs, gas log and regional seismic interpretation suggests the upper zone in Sugarloaf-1 is likely to be within the Sugarkane Field.

I am thinking 2 plays here,, edwards and suagrkane...

Each time they say something, its never too clear, but when you lok at drilling depths and logs it doesnt match up,, i could be barking up the wrong tree,, but i cant see anything else but 2 plays tight now..

So are the 100 wells for oil the sugarkane or the edwards??? at kunde 1 they produce oil. so if couchy is right, 100 horizontal wells!! thats frightening!!

All imho and dyor..



Nice news on the other fronts,,

Yemen coming on..

Indonesia starting...

JVP with Sun resources!! NICE!!

plenty of value
​

Howdy Agent, and thanks for your continued delving into the possible scenarios .................. I could be way off track here, and will be happy to be so, but, I just get the feeling that the above referenced initial testing of the lower zone for "engineering reasons", is/will be a "stalling" tactic, (for "whatever" reason ............. I have no idea exactly what the reason is, other than there seems to be a lot of stalling going on to this point) ............... Don't get me wrong ......... I think this is all part of the long term plan ............ I think they are still stalling for time ............. why ............ I don't know, .......... but whatever the reasons are, they remain the SAME reasons for the stalling to date ............ ie. There are obviously some big plays going on here, and we punters are only guessing until the final washup is divulged ............... My guess is that the low zones will be "initially" non-commercial, and that may well be the last opportunity for "investors" to get ADI shares at a discount ............... I believe all the action will be up "higher" in the well/future wells, and for whatever reasons they need to stall the results, all will become clear in time ............... I hope I'm right because I'll be buying more if the "news" in the lower sections causes a drop in the sp ........................

I agree with you Agent, this is shaping up to be very big ................ Stalling the testing of the well ............. Buying up land rights b4 testing ............ Other JV partners buying up land/doing private deals .............. Announcing a second well prior to testing the first .................. These guys obviously have a great idea of what they are on to ............... You don't do all these things "out of order" unless you are pretty confident ............... Lets imagine the absolute worst case scenario (unlikely to the n'th degree imo) ............... Both SL1 and SL2 fail !!!!! .............. Imo, even if this happens, it is just a matter of time b4 the payload is "tapped" into ............. so long term holders will eventually be rewarded ................... Best case scenario ???????? .................. I have a personal story to tell in relation to Sugarloaf, but can't tell it until the story unfolds and proves my experience to be true ................. I'm looking forward to telling that story, and hope it will be sooner rather than later ............. No insider knowledge or anything like that (I'm not trying to sway anybody either way ..... not my style..), but some interesting events transpired nevertheless ............ Good luck to all the long term punters ............

 

[chance fate]

...barney...just a comment ... bottom up testing is quite normal... it's easier to isolate perforated zones so you can focus on the zone of interest going up the well than going down the well (you'd have to install some sort of packer and tubing going down - whereas you can simply install a temporary plug on the way up...)...

 

[Agentm]

i was just researching all the logs on SL1

i will post them or maybe jacko can we only need the first three..

you will see the 11500 play thats sugarkane.. but there are more plays..

one higher and two lower


the edwards one (13000 feet0 corresponds with pogue and with XTO wells 6 miles norh and the other wells south of us..

the next one up, is huge, and is not being intercepted by the SL2 horizontal..

I think we have one proven play, thats may well be the edwards, and then sugarkane to be tested by SL2, and theres one more..

this is very exciting stuff,, i was not getting what the reports from the last weeks were saying,, now i get it a lot more,, this is a major find alright..

keep on buyin them!!!!!!!!!

 

[barney]

...barney...just a comment ... bottom up testing is quite normal... it's easier to isolate perforated zones so you can focus on the zone of interest going up the well than going down the well (you'd have to install some sort of packer and tubing going down - whereas you can simply install a temporary plug on the way up...)...

Hi C/F, I understand that is the way to test, and hope my last post was not misconstrued........

I just get the impression the lower zones will be tested to "follow procedure", as was the case with the previous low zones ............... I have to stress, I'm just "talking out of my hat" here, so no one should take too much notice .............. I am a long term investor with ADI now and no doubt like yourself, believe there is possibly a great story unfolding here .............. In no way was I trying to downplay the situation ......... to the contrary ................. I think the final washup with sugarloaf etc. will be a great result for all "believers" .......... I certainly won't be selling even if the lower zones are "less" than some might expect ................ To me that might represent a "final" buying opportunity if you get my drift ................ Thats what I was kind of saying in a round about fashion ......... Its been a long day Cheers.......

 

[chance fate]

barney... between the lines seems what you're saying is... don't worry if the lower intervals don't come thru'... i'm certainly in that camp... so anyone who wants to trade on what could be interpreted as bad news... good luck....but you're not getting my shares....

 

[barney]

barney... between the lines seems what you're saying is... don't worry if the lower intervals don't come thru'... i'm certainly in that camp... so anyone who wants to trade on what could be interpreted as bad news... good luck....but you're not getting my shares....

100% with you on that one C/F, .......... I won't be selling mine either ..........There's been some patience required to this point of course ............ Good "story" developing on this one I think ...............

PS Well done Agent on showing some "ASF class" on an alternative forum where one or two of the "natives" are a little less than friendly:twak: ......

 

[Agentm]

this was posted last year by ed.. uk forum..

Edgein, circa Sep 2006
Did you read the information that I posted on the C1-C4 ratios.
You also notice that the gas ppm are at times over 2.8% V/V for C1
alone and ranging in gas units of between 500 to over 1000 from a
background reading of zero, the standard through hundreds of feet is
at least 62units with one particular section showing c1-c4 increasing
considerably over background as reported in the information by Saf
and also the RNS by EME and partners. It is clear that once they pass
through the shale and siltsone section into the upper reservoir as
reported in the logs as "show #1" there is a significant set of peaks
corresponding with the section that would represent the upper reservoir.
Siltstone and shale are common seal type lithology, Chalk is a common
reservoir type especially for gas traps. It is my view that these peaks
and the words "show #1" are an indication that a gas section has been entered.
It is quite possible that you wouldn't see that as a good result, but then again I'm a holder and you most likely are not. Good gas shows doesn't
automatically mean its going to be a commercial well, but its a good start.
Some wells have significantly strong gas shows and are unable to sustain
high flow rates due to reservoir characteristics. Some wells with lesser gas shows may have ideal reservoir characteristics and sustain flow very
commercially over a long period. As stated the gas ratios are within a "potentially" commercial range.


Some very useful information provided by Saf over the weekend again,
there is one particular section of interest that has C1-C4 shows and
the ratios are in the region of 30 (apparently good and within a potentially commercial range).

There is a vast amount of info in the logs. I've never seen so much
information revealed from a well while its in the process of drilling.
The DTI site provides logs of UK wells after the well has been drilled,
but not for some time afterwards, and not in such detail.

I'm kinda reading the logs in that the spikes are interesting sections
and leaving anything that is below about 62u as backgound, although it
seems to be essentially be a gas show. The report based on wirelining could be very interesting indeed, restivity logs coupled with the mud logs (gas shows and lithology). As saf has suggested there is suitable lithology throughout these shows (chalk, limestone and some sandstone early on, mainly chalk and limestone though).

Max readings so far seem to br just in excess of 1000u.

The ratios of C1 vs C2 and C1 vs C3 are important in determining the type and potential commerciality of the gas find it seems. Its not guaranteed as a flowing well until tested, some wells with gas units do not sustain long term flow. We have the initial signs of a potentially commercial well with the increases in C1-C4, gas unit spikes over a significant reservoir section of limestone and chalk and a high ppm especially in methane.
There are certainly hydrocarbons present during drilling so far. We'll know more from the wirelining, and we'll not know the end result until fully tested. As everyone else, fingers are crossed for the end result.



The sugarloaf gas ratios can be determined over some of the sections
by the information provided by Safiande and mpls.
We discussed this on Saturaday and the ratios from Sugar were between 19 and 31 for the gas samples returned.

Reply from Saf, my bold emphasis:
"Peak gas reading in the secondary were 1000 but in the primary, Hosston, there were only 536.

It was known that one of the partners wanted just to test the secondary"


...................................................................................................


this post was done by someone i hold in high esteeem, and pre wireline.

Since the wirelines were done the JVP's have planned SL2 and Kunde 3. both wells are planned in away to not impede on failure and repeat mistakes, kunde 3 went first for the sugarkane, and was drilled vertically to 11700 then tested, then drilled horizontally.. this was done some weeks ago, and once the testing was completed, it gave them enough confidence to go ahead with the sugarkane aspect on our leases and put the infill well out to the east. the announcement soon followed..

SL1 i appears not to interested in extensively testing the sugarkane currently, i think the other two zones are being tested to guage which way to go on them.

I back TCEI and conocophilips on the sugarkane development, i think they would not have gone ahead with SL2 unless some real confidence could be got from the kunde 3 horizontal tests..

on the broader horizon.. Yemen looks closer, and indonesia..

I see the other jvp's have little on the map other than sugar... ADI is doing the hard yards and going forward onto some future projects..

All very good, and still very much on the upside as i see the news..

exciting weeks and days ahead..

DYOR and all IMHO

 

[Agentm]

not much interest here on ADI anymore..

though i may just repost this.. just my thoughts on sugarloaf/sugarkane..

well heres my theory.. its staring us all in the face but i think i understand the plan at sugarloaf

kunde 1, is a test well, which was twinned with kunde 2

kunde 2 was lost.. Kunde 1 maybe damaged, is producing gas and oil. (i know which levels)

Kunde 3 horizontal.. 12200 feet.

Sugarloaf 2 horizontal 11500 feet.

so why two wells?? two different depths..??

Sugarkane has two plays:

"The first of the three identified zones is expected to be tested during the first half of August."

"the Sugarloaf joint venture has now also approved the drilling of a horizontal well to target the same Cretaceous age carbonate zone that is producing from the nearby Sugarkane Field"

key word... "ZONE"

the two sugarkane zones are clearly seen in the couch logs for SL1.. one is at 11500, and the other at the 12000 region.. we are testing the upper one!!

We are drilling and targeting the upper Sugarkane zone with SL2 - 11550 feet horizontal

The TCEI Conocophillips team are targeting and drilling the lower Sugarkane zone - 12200 feet horizontal.

The Kunde 3 well was at 11700 feet last month before it went horizontal. (clearly past the first sugarkane zone.)

the third play is the edwards.. to be tested by the SL1 well.

We have both zones in our well!!!!

So they will be drilling for 3 targets, with 2 targets having to be drilled horizontal, and seperately

the edwards, play 3 - vertical.

so the 100 wells for the oil.. (sugarkane), that be 50 wells upper 50 wells lower sugarkane perhaps?

then there is still the edwards!!

can SL1 be converted to drill horizontal into the lower 12200 sugarkane zone just as kunde 3 is?

just a thought? delays there???? more delays?? delayed again and again... more delays...

 

[HOMER J]

both ADI and EKA up nicely today. wonder if something is coming or this is on the back of yesterdays updates......

A close above 76c on ADI sometime soon could triger some nice buying imo.