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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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In most western countries from memory, you couldnt stop people with HIV donating blood, luckily the coronavirus isnt a big problem here. YET.
Because there is no way, you will be able to stop people doing what they like here, infected or not infected IMO.:roflmao:
 
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sptrawler said:
Because there is no way, you will be able to stop people doing what they like here, infected or not infected IMO.:roflmao:
Click to expand...
Martial law could be declared if it was deemed serious enough. I dont think it would get to that point and if it did it would be to late and a shtf scenario.
 
A bad development: has been confirmed airborne
People on wechat fretting about ventilation, air circulation
You can get it entering a room a contaminated person was in a few minutes ago.
It is a bastard virus...
And i think now China has no choice but start reopening a bit:
Shops are empty!
Food supplies, etc
 
Key diagnostic test might be missing many virus cases

Liu Denghui, Huang Shulun and Matthew Walsh

Feb 9, 2020 — 6.55pm

Beijing | China’s ability to control the rapidly spreading coronavirus epidemic is under further strain amid fears that a key test used to confirm new cases is failing to catch large numbers of people with the disease.
Problems with so-called nucleic acid tests (NATs) widely used to identify the presence of the previously unknown pneumonia-causing virus make it likely that many infections are going uncounted even as the number of confirmed cases continues to spiral.

Authorities are still struggling to ascertain the true extent of the epidemic. In Hubei, the province at the epicentre of the outbreak, reports of overwhelmed hospitals, scarce medical supplies, and overly stringent diagnostic criteria have complicated efforts to determine the scope of the disease.

Health officials have recommended cheap, abundant, and generally accurate NATs as one of two main methods to confirm the presence of the coronavirus in humans. The technique involves collecting samples from patients and testing them for specific kinds of molecules that appear in the genetic material of the new coronavirus. If those molecules are present in the sample, the patient is isolated for treatment.

But there is growing concern that those NATs are producing large numbers of false negatives. In an interview last week with state broadcaster CCTV, Wang Chen, an expert in critical diseases and director of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said one characteristic of the virus was that “not all of those infected by it return positive NATs”.

“Even patients who definitely have the disease only come back positive 30 per cent to 50 per cent of the time,” Dr Wang said. “Testing throat swabs [from potentially infected people] also returns a lot of false negatives.”
Tests like NATs are especially important in people that may have contracted the virus but have not yet shown symptoms. Emerging trends in local infections mean that many such patients may have been sent home by hospitals after their NATs came back negative, doctors told Caixin.

“At the moment, more and more cases in Wuhan are flaring up collectively in family groups, and the majority are of the concealed onset type,” said Zhang Xiaochun, a deputy director of the medical imaging department at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, one of the institutions at the centre of the outbreak.

“They may have undergone one or even several NATs and shown no clinical symptoms, but keeping them under observation at home is bound to spread the disease further.”

A doctor in the imaging department of another major Wuhan hospital, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Caixin said that previously some patients whose CT scans clearly showed signs of viral infection but whose NATs tested negative were “released” back into their communities due to a shortage of hospital berths.

NATs are by nature an imperfect mechanism for determining the presence of a given organism. For instance, because the genetic material they test for usually only exists in tiny amounts, many NATs include a step called amplification, which makes many copies of it. A shortcoming of amplification is that it also copies any contaminating DNA in the sample, potentially causing misleading results.

“All experienced doctors know that NATs contain flaws,” the doctor told Caixin.

Aside from NATs, health officials have also recommended the use of gene sequencing to confirm coronavirus infections.

But that method has its own problems. Although gene sequencing is comparatively accurate, it is also expensive, and not all affected hospitals have the necessary facilities. Additionally, at the start of the outbreak, many hospitals had to gain permission from higher authorities to conduct such tests, a rule that has since been relaxed.

Experts have previously called for the inclusion of CT scanning as a key basis for diagnosing coronavirus infections, as well as rapid hospital admission and isolation.

In response to calls from medical professionals on the frontlines of the epidemic, the NHC on Tuesday relaxed the clinical criteria for reporting suspected coronavirus cases, with extra leeway granted to people in Hubei.

(Originally published in Caixin)
 
qldfrog said:
A bad development: has been confirmed airborne
People on wechat fretting about ventilation, air circulation
You can get it entering a room a contaminated person was in a few minutes ago.
It is a bastard virus...
And i think now China has no choice but start reopening a bit:
Shops are empty!
Food supplies, etc
Click to expand...
Are you sure they mean it lingers in the air, or do they mean that if someone sneezes, the droplet lands on something and the virus stays alive?
That is usually the case as a sneeze ect is heavier than air and the droplets fall quite quickly to a surface, therefore breathing it in a room where someone has left is unusual.
Here is an explanation from CNN:
Coronaviruses "primarily spread through close contact with another individual, in particular through coughing and sneezing on somebody else who is within a range of about 3 to 6 feet from that person," said Dr. Kathy Lofy, a state health officer for Washington, where the patient with confirmed coronavirus has been hospitalized.

If an infected person sneezes or coughs onto a surface — a countertop, for example — and another person touches that surface and then rubs his or her eyes or nose, for example, the latter may get sick.

It's still unclear, however, how long the virus particles for this new coronavirus can live on surfaces.

What's more, it's unknown at what point a person with the virus becomes contagious. Health care workers are operating under the assumption that the incubation period for the illness is about 14 days, meaning that it takes roughly that amount of time for symptoms to show up after a person is infected. Scientists still do not know whether a person is infectious during the incubation period.

Infectious disease experts are hoping to glean insight into the new virus from another well-known coronavirus, the SARS virus. That coronavirus caused widespread global disease during its outbreak from 2002 to 2003.

"While we do not know all of the mechanisms of spread of the epidemic so far, there is likely spread by droplets and contaminated surfaces, and possible airborne [spread], similar to SARS," Dr. Mark Denison, a virologist at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said. Denison has been studying coronaviruses for more than three decades.

All of this makes proper hand-washing critical to help stop the spread of the germs. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends washing hands with soap and water before eating, after using the bathroom, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, and before and after caring for a sick friend or a family member.

The most effective way to clean hands is to wet them with clean water, then apply soap and scrub for at least 20 seconds, before rinsing and drying with a clean towel.

Hand sanitizers with at least 60 percent alcohol content may also be used, but the CDC warns they are not effective against all germs.
 
sptrawler said:
Are you sure they mean it lingers in the air, or do they mean that if someone sneezes, the droplet lands on something and the virus stays alive?
That is usually the case as a sneeze ect is heavier than air and the droplets fall quite quickly to a surface, therefore breathing it in a room where someone has left is unusual.
Here is an explanation from CNN:
Coronaviruses "primarily spread through close contact with another individual, in particular through coughing and sneezing on somebody else who is within a range of about 3 to 6 feet from that person," said Dr. Kathy Lofy, a state health officer for Washington, where the patient with confirmed coronavirus has been hospitalized.

If an infected person sneezes or coughs onto a surface — a countertop, for example — and another person touches that surface and then rubs his or her eyes or nose, for example, the latter may get sick.

It's still unclear, however, how long the virus particles for this new coronavirus can live on surfaces.

What's more, it's unknown at what point a person with the virus becomes contagious. Health care workers are operating under the assumption that the incubation period for the illness is about 14 days, meaning that it takes roughly that amount of time for symptoms to show up after a person is infected. Scientists still do not know whether a person is infectious during the incubation period.

Infectious disease experts are hoping to glean insight into the new virus from another well-known coronavirus, the SARS virus. That coronavirus caused widespread global disease during its outbreak from 2002 to 2003.

"While we do not know all of the mechanisms of spread of the epidemic so far, there is likely spread by droplets and contaminated surfaces, and possible airborne [spread], similar to SARS," Dr. Mark Denison, a virologist at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said. Denison has been studying coronaviruses for more than three decades.

All of this makes proper hand-washing critical to help stop the spread of the germs. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends washing hands with soap and water before eating, after using the bathroom, and after blowing your nose, coughing or sneezing, and before and after caring for a sick friend or a family member.

The most effective way to clean hands is to wet them with clean water, then apply soap and scrub for at least 20 seconds, before rinsing and drying with a clean towel.

Hand sanitizers with at least 60 percent alcohol content may also be used, but the CDC warns they are not effective against all germs.
Click to expand...
Sadly no, a Shanghai health official has confirmed it and it is all over the news is China today: the virus can infect you airborne:
a contaminated person breathes, the virus attaches itself to air droplets, is carried around and reinfects another person breathing the air, you will get a WHO release in the coming days/hours.It is NOT good;
I try to find an English release of the news
 
qldfrog said:
Sadly no, a Shanghai health official has confirmed it and it is all over the news is China today: the virus can infect you airborne:
a contaminated person breathes, the virus attaches itself to air droplets, is carried around and reinfects another person breathing the air, you will get a WHO release in the coming days/hours.It is NOT good;
I try to find an English release of the news
Click to expand...
Jeez that is bad news.
 
Knobby22 said:
Did find article about some Chinese students saying we are racist for stopping flights to Australia.
Click to expand...

Thing is, Chinese people are free to criticise the Australian government and will face no repercussions from doing so.

On the other hand, if they were to publicly (via the media etc) criticise their own government.......
 
Let me put this simple using just pure logic.
1. Chinese govnuts will never be truthful, they need to manage 1,300,000,000 peoples emtions and expectation. Truth hurts
2. The CCP have taken extrodionary measure to control this virus? Why?
3. I think they know more about this virus but dont want to come clean due to saving face. Dumb arse approach. The truth always reveals itself, just takes time.

So let me paint a simple and viable scenario.
The ccp constructed a p4 med lab fir the public purpose of researching infectious diseases.
Part of this facility wasvto research diseases that could be weaponise.
Not necessarily to create weapons but maybe to defend against other countries creating biological weapons. More than feasible.
So ib researching said weapons, one gets out.
Know the ccp realise this, it was a fuckup. So they go into quick defense, locking diwn 50,000,000 people.

Why?
The international economic implication to their country could be massive, setting them back decades in development.

Lose of face to their own people and the rest of the world.

So while i believe is the case abd this virus over time will have a higher death rate than the common flu.

I have to wonder how many other countries are developing biological weapons that if released by purpose or accident could wipe out humans.

So if i was the ccp, come clean, set a president to stop weaponising viruses
 
satanoperca said:
Let me put this simple using just pure logic.
1. Chinese govnuts will never be truthful, they need to manage 1,300,000,000 peoples emtions and expectation. Truth hurts
2. The CCP have taken extrodionary measure to control this virus? Why?
3. I think they know more about this virus but dont want to come clean due to saving face. Dumb arse approach. The truth always reveals itself, just takes time.

So let me paint a simple and viable scenario.
The ccp constructed a p4 med lab fir the public purpose of researching infectious diseases.
Part of this facility wasvto research diseases that could be weaponise.
Not necessarily to create weapons but maybe to defend against other countries creating biological weapons. More than feasible.
So ib researching said weapons, one gets out.
Know the ccp realise this, it was a fuckup. So they go into quick defense, locking diwn 50,000,000 people.

Why?
The international economic implication to their country could be massive, setting them back decades in development.

Lose of face to their own people and the rest of the world.

So while i believe is the case abd this virus over time will have a higher death rate than the common flu.

I have to wonder how many other countries are developing biological weapons that if released by purpose or accident could wipe out humans.

So if i was the ccp, come clean, set a president to stop weaponising viruses
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly:
Virus is an escapee: genetic sequence point to SARS virus plus 2 HIV bits..CRISP...
Once released accidentally, the CCP is informed and deploy extraordinary measures as it is aware of the potency.
These obviously are not successful.
To be honest, a lost cause from the start
Now, it is out so no point pointing finger
If they could admit the lab origin, we could prepare for higher genetic mutations than a wild virus
And we could have a better idea of the infected/sick/dead ratio.
These are not great news and the impact starts being felt.it will ripple down the stock market. The low AUD vs USD is not a mystery
 
qldfrog said:
My thoughts exactly:
Virus is an escapee: genetic sequence point to SARS virus plus 2 HIV bits..CRISP...
Once released accidentally, the CCP is informed and deploy extraordinary measures as it is aware of the potency.
These obviously are not successful.
To be honest, a lost cause from the start
Now, it is out so no point pointing finger
If they could admit the lab origin, we could prepare for higher genetic mutations than a wild virus
And we could have a better idea of the infected/sick/dead ratio.
These are not great news and the impact starts being felt.it will ripple down the stock market. The low AUD vs USD is not a mystery
Click to expand...
It doesn't at this stage appear to have a very high mortality rate, for a man made super virus, but the infection rate is very startling.
Mortality rate appears to be 1% and seems to be those with an underlying respiratory problem.
 
sptrawler said:
It doesn't at this stage appear to have a very high mortality rate, for a man made super virus, but the infection rate is very startling.
Mortality rate appears to be 1% and seems to be those with an underlying respiratory problem.
Click to expand...
I would not rely too much on the story about underlying condition etc.the GP and health workers dying daily there are neither elderly nor frail.
But yes it is not a death sentence, the real issue is and remain an unknown
How many in hospital and how many deaths per infected..
And china has not given us reliable figures there
The cruise boat situation is interesting for that .
That will determine if hospital system collapses as in Wuhan or not
 

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