AEX - Acclaim Exploration
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crackaton said:
How far off production ??
AEX advises that "non JORC" resource is 11,000 tonnes of U at a grade of .035%. They never mention the gold grades at the Denny Dalton Mine. Most of the South African gold mines (as is the AEX project located) mine gold from Witwaterrand quartz pebble conglomerates. Historical average grades from these mines run around 8-9 g/t au and as high as 14 g/t. U is produced as a by-product from gold mining at tyical grades that AEX reports at Denny Dalton.
AEX reports that earlier studies anticipated a production rate on the U at 1,000 tonnes per annum for 10 years. At a grade of .035% that equates to 11.29 ozs per tonne (valued at US$26.10 or gold equivalent value of 1.47 g/t @ US$550oz).
To recover 1,000 tonnes of U per annum at this rate means processing 3,117,804 tonnes of ore. The profitability of the operation will be found in the amount of gold in the ore IF it hits anywhere near average grades for South African mines then gold equivalent (U + AU) grades will be around 10 grams per tonne. At 3,117,804 tonnes x 10 grams = 1,005,743 ozs per annum.
I am doubting that the grades of AU are this high BUT the above number indicates that the numbers will be very large. The market probably discounted the stock because the gold grades were never mentioned. In any event if we discount the above numbers by 75% we still get an estimated 250,000 ozs of au equivalent per year with gross revenues of US$135,700,000. assume operating costs of US$400 per oz and we are left with US$35,700,000 free cash per year. A valuation of five times cash flow = US$187,500,000
Fully diluted for 565,000,000 shares / oppies that is 44 cents per share in A$. IMHO AEX is probably worth 10-15 cents per share somewhere in the near future IF the above scenario is a reasonable assumption.
AEX reports that earlier studies anticipated a production rate on the U at 1,000 tonnes per annum for 10 years. At a grade of .035% that equates to 11.29 ozs per tonne (valued at US$26.10 or gold equivalent value of 1.47 g/t @ US$550oz).
To recover 1,000 tonnes of U per annum at this rate means processing 3,117,804 tonnes of ore. The profitability of the operation will be found in the amount of gold in the ore IF it hits anywhere near average grades for South African mines then gold equivalent (U + AU) grades will be around 10 grams per tonne. At 3,117,804 tonnes x 10 grams = 1,005,743 ozs per annum.
I am doubting that the grades of AU are this high BUT the above number indicates that the numbers will be very large. The market probably discounted the stock because the gold grades were never mentioned. In any event if we discount the above numbers by 75% we still get an estimated 250,000 ozs of au equivalent per year with gross revenues of US$135,700,000. assume operating costs of US$400 per oz and we are left with US$35,700,000 free cash per year. A valuation of five times cash flow = US$187,500,000
Fully diluted for 565,000,000 shares / oppies that is 44 cents per share in A$. IMHO AEX is probably worth 10-15 cents per share somewhere in the near future IF the above scenario is a reasonable assumption.
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Hi Crackaton
Has the company indicated at all at when they plan to actually get something out of the ground...say in a 1 yr, 2 yr or 3yr timespan as this sounds interesting.
Has the company indicated at all at when they plan to actually get something out of the ground...say in a 1 yr, 2 yr or 3yr timespan as this sounds interesting.
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The objectives of the Company's exploration and corporate programs for 2003 are: -
* Exploration for nickel sulphides on the recently acquired Claude Hills tenements
* Target drilling on Wingellina to extend to laterite resource to 100 million tonnes at 1.5% nickel [+25 year mine life]
* Reduce administration expenditure
* Raise awareness in the investment community and amongst global miners as to the quality of our assets
Still no one has come to the party and sounds like they are dressing their nickel up to be sold to a bigger mob....another danger is they only have $935,000 in the bank so dont know how long thts gonna last till they need to raise capital as no bank will lend them any money.
The u mine is at the medium advanced stage so would like it some one could explain in simple language how far does that mean before it sells the stuff? 5 yrs, 2Yrs...
Crackaton do you know actually on a map where the nickel mine is and how far it is from a railway line and if the railway line can actually fit iny more carraiges on it..maybe smurf can help us out here.
At present i would throw $500 on the stock and see what happens.
* Exploration for nickel sulphides on the recently acquired Claude Hills tenements
* Target drilling on Wingellina to extend to laterite resource to 100 million tonnes at 1.5% nickel [+25 year mine life]
* Reduce administration expenditure
* Raise awareness in the investment community and amongst global miners as to the quality of our assets
Still no one has come to the party and sounds like they are dressing their nickel up to be sold to a bigger mob....another danger is they only have $935,000 in the bank so dont know how long thts gonna last till they need to raise capital as no bank will lend them any money.
The u mine is at the medium advanced stage so would like it some one could explain in simple language how far does that mean before it sells the stuff? 5 yrs, 2Yrs...
Crackaton do you know actually on a map where the nickel mine is and how far it is from a railway line and if the railway line can actually fit iny more carraiges on it..maybe smurf can help us out here.
At present i would throw $500 on the stock and see what happens.
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It depends on what they mean by "medium advanced". I don't know anything about this company or the specific project but I doubt they would be selling product in less than 2 years if they're still needing money for development etc. More likely it will take 3+ years but as I said I'm not familiar with this project, just making a general comment.TheAnalyst said:
As for transport, for gold and uranium a road ought to suffice since the physical volumes aren't huge relative to value. For nickel they would want to be within reasonable distance of rail or some other transport method or at least have a good road capable of carrying very large trucks at high speed to be economic. In general rail is cheaper.
As I said I don't know the details of the project though so just making general comments.
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AEX has yet to acquire Denny Dalton in S.Africa.
AEX has no other projects set to move ahead - they appear to be pinning their hopes on Denny Dalton.
AEX is about 12 months behind Paladin, so use that as a yardstick - on the basis they get Denny Dalton.
At this stage there are advantages coming in a bit later as negotiated forward contract prices for uranium will be higher and project financing easier.
AEX has no other projects set to move ahead - they appear to be pinning their hopes on Denny Dalton.
AEX is about 12 months behind Paladin, so use that as a yardstick - on the basis they get Denny Dalton.
At this stage there are advantages coming in a bit later as negotiated forward contract prices for uranium will be higher and project financing easier.
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If they are so good and have this big nickel mine then if they are so good why havent they got it up and running if they are so smart.....i think the boom will beat these fella's and they know it so the plan is amongst them lets get this share price moving and try and get some of those options converted at 25 cents and get some dough before it heads back to zilch.
I think maybe the next boom for this one 10-15 yrs away.
I think maybe the next boom for this one 10-15 yrs away.
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crackaton said:
They are based on facts that are presently available to the market currently and i am not tearing you to shreds as there are others reading the posts....I have evaluated them in light of the nations economic cycle as well as the worlds economic cycle especially the major drivers China and India and said ok can AEX get it going before the cycle is finished? And considering others from historical resource booms which then brings us to the sector approach..MINING...and crackaton if you are not aware of Smurfs qualifications and mine as well when it comes to finance i can tell you a little about the options convertable at 25 cents.
The company has nothing happenning in the short term future and not even the medium future it has already surrendered to the fact that they wont produce nickel but will sell the whole mine if they can to a large miner from their 2003 corporate vision which i posted on the thread for you.
I have specific qualifications in analysing financial statements and they have $935,000 in the bank, how long is that gonna last?
You have been presented with hard facts and MMN also has the hard facts they are right near production phase though they are high risk and then i have only thrown $1000 to the trade and you disputed the MMN process with no evidence i have presented to you AEX in regards to their current situation and it aint real good but like i said $500 is all i would put on it and you know by Smurfs post of the Uranium process...it looks like it will miss the boat and the directors want an earn before it falls totally on its a** at the end of the boom.
You can take a punt on it and get some technical bounces if you are lucky but i wouldn't when there are much better plays happenning right now i have just made 30% in the last week on the RIO play installment warrants RIOIZL and the party aint over ...so why would you want this thing when there are less riskier ones around like some gold stocks BGF especially and you can sit on it for a couple of yrs?
I am not tearing you down i assessed it the same way as i assesses Quay magnesium QMG, MMN, BGF, MGX, STO, these 4 stocks are right near production and had a pour have good forecasts and good historical reporting and share price growth or are running and increasing production and exploration and earning and almost finished production facilities and have infrastructure or attaining infrastructure and at each stage of proving production and gaining investor confidence the diminishment of risk step by step increases their share price...and yes i know there are more like this out there.
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hey AEX has jumped a bit hey crackaton...bit fast for me though
rederob said:
according to quarterly, the acquisition of denny dalton is complete...
they say the project is at a medium advanced stage but they still need to do BFS so at least 2-3yrs away from production if u ask me, we still dont know how much they can produce annually, mine life, costs, etc...
but yeh 11,025t of u3o8 is heaps, thats like 24m lb, heaps of cash flow if all works well...
but there does seem 2 be alot of interest at the moment, gee i wish i knew who was buying all those shares...
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how much have you made you son of a gun cracka.....then i wonder if you will know when it falls as well
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what do you think of mmn and bgf are you holding
