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Address by Marcus Padley

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Julia

Julia

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Marcus Padley (stockbroker/analyst) was one of five guests on Radio National's "Fora" programme on "The economic downturn - what should we do".

His comments are something all new people (and plenty who are not so new) should listen to, especially those who believe that "if a stock gets cheaper, then it's more of a bargain", and that "averaging down" makes any sort of sense.

Marcus Padley is the final speaker.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/foraradio/stories/2009/2555295.htm
 
Thanks for that Julia.

Marcus writes something called the Marcus Today newsletter (google it) and features every morning on 774 ABC Melbourne with Jon Faine. He brings a new light to economics and markets with what i find to be a no nonsense approach and tells it how he thinks it is without the gloss if need be.

I cant wait to here this speech though. Just downloaded it and whacked it in the iPod.

:bier:

blue
 
Marcus is often interviewed on Lateline Business......Ali Moore goes weak at the knees when interviewing him.....he is a very cool guy....

I made some hurried voice notes when driving home last night when listening to him.....about his main rules of share trading.....


- falling price always means 'sell'. the market falls 3x faster than it rises. therefore act quick in a bear m. humans take a long time to get the message, but you don't have time in a bear market

- cash is the best stock in a bear market

- no one ever tells you to sell... the finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in, not let you out. therefore sell decision has to be yours....and industry will resist you.

- nobody "knows".....investment comes with risk, don't ever think it's safe

- is buy and hold dead? good for Warren but not for those who haven't got their mortgage and school fees covered and can't afford to be patient with a 30+ year time line....buy and hold has always been dangerous and a compromise.....it's buy and watch like a hawk ALWAYS
 
Julia said:
Marcus Padley (stockbroker/analyst) was one of five guests on Radio National's "Fora" programme on "The economic downturn - what should we do".

His comments are something all new people (and plenty who are not so new) should listen to, especially those who believe that "if a stock gets cheaper, then it's more of a bargain", and that "averaging down" makes any sort of sense.

Marcus Padley is the final speaker.

http://www.abc.net.au/rn/foraradio/stories/2009/2555295.htm
Click to expand...

Thanks Julia. Marcus is I think is probably one of the only stckbrokers out there who literally tell it how they see it. To bad his newsletter his to expensive. w.
 
helicart said:
"is buy and hold dead? good for Warren but not for those who haven't got their mortgage and school fees covered and can't afford to be patient with a 30+ year time line"
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This quote seems to apply more to brokers rather than their customers. Brokers don't earn commissions unless their customers are churning their account.
 
freddy2 said:
This quote seems to apply more to brokers rather than their customers. Brokers don't earn commissions unless their customers are churning their account.
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That's only if you ignore the customers who rely on bank dividends or living off equity, in this recession. i.e. ANZ share price halved and div just quartered....
 
rapt88 said:
LOL .. I go weak at the knees watching Ali Moore
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get in line.....she certainly asks some of the more astute questions of her guests, which I hope she thinks up by herself.....there's no greater turn on than brains and beauty, with a cheeky grin. :)

she certainly puts the usual ABC pinko goons to shame (Tony Jones, Kerry O'Brien).
 
helicart said:
.


- falling price always means 'sell'. the market falls 3x faster than it rises. therefore act quick in a bear m. humans take a long time to get the message, but you don't have time in a bear market

- cash is the best stock in a bear market

- no one ever tells you to sell... the finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in, not let you out. therefore sell decision has to be yours....and industry will resist you.

- nobody "knows".....investment comes with risk, don't ever think it's safe

- is buy and hold dead? good for Warren but not for those who haven't got their mortgage and school fees covered and can't afford to be patient with a 30+ year time line....buy and hold has always been dangerous and a compromise.....it's buy and watch like a hawk ALWAYS
Click to expand...
Yep. Thanks for posting these points. Hopefully it might encourage a few more to listen to his comments.

- no one ever tells you to sell... the finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in, not let you out. therefore sell decision has to be yours....and industry will resist you.
Click to expand...
I reckon the Storm clients could attest to this.
 
I just listened to that again and you get more out of it after listening a few times.

Brief jotting down of his "6 points", apologies for any errors in spelling but he talks really fast.

1. Ever punching your arms up in delight it means time to sell.
2. One thing a falling share price tells you, its not buy me, if something falls in price everyone wants to buy it. What’s with this culture? It should be sell me not buy more. Stocks fall three times more then it rises, loses have three times more of an effect on you then wins.
3. Stock markets rise slowly and fall quickly. You need the confidence to make the decisions quickly.
4. Humans take a long time to get the message. Investors take a long time to get the message. Cautious at the bottom of the market and risk takers at the top, investors are not wired to be successful; we take too long to get the message, always behind the curb.
5. No one ever tells you to sell. Best stocks in a bear market are CASH, that’s it. Finance industry is a marketing machine, designed to suck you in and not to let you in. Very difficult to get out! The sell decision has to be yours, no one else will tell you to. Next bear market, you have to make this decision for yourself.
6. “No one knows”. The only person that knew what was going to happen was Karl Marx, he went short 100 years ago and went bankrupt, and timing is everything! Investment comes with risk, it’s not safe, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
7. Buy and hold breads inaction and denial. You can’t make a decision on today’s info to make a projection for 20 years in the future, its arrogance and blindly stupid. This is what caused people to lose 50% of their capital over the past 18 months. You can’t tell me that you wouldn’t be in a better position if you sold 12 months ago. We are not Warren Buffett. Buy and hold was never alive, its weakness was covered by a massive bull market. Now this is over and even he is losing money and getting slaughtered.” If you never sell it means you’ve never suffered a loss”, who ever said that is an idiot.
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wonder.
 
Marcus is on Lateline Business every Tuesday nite...or is it Wednesday's, anyway
he comes across as pretty cool and very honest...often says hes go no idea why
XYZ went up or down.
 
marcus has a weekly column in the west australian newspaper and i always get a kick out of it
 
Thanks, Jack. Yes, that appears to be the first part.
 
wonderrman said:
Thanks Julia. Marcus is I think is probably one of the only stckbrokers out there who literally tell it how they see it. To bad his newsletter his to expensive. w.
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If he dispenses information so freely, then who buys his Daily Newsletter? I would appreciate it if a current subscriber could rate it.
 
If he dispenses information so freely, then who buys his Daily Newsletter?
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The information he dispenses is nothing compared to what you get in the newsletter. I've done one of those trial things before and you get three emails each day with updates. The morning email is very large like Charlie Aitken's "Under the southern cross" and Denis Gartman's "The Gartman Letter", if you have heard or seen any of them, proboably about 1500 words from memory.
 
Yes a good man to listen to and funny at times too.

Although I learned nothing groundbreakingly new from it I will listen to it a few more times. What a breath of fresh air he is.
 
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