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BWP - BWP Trust

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Muschu

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I couldn't find a thread on BWP but hope this will be shifted if there is....

I know the share price has been higher than it is now but the chart over the past 12 months looks pretty good. Add in a 6-7% return and it's better. [No franking though]

I don't hold BWP although I have a retired friend who has held it for many years.

Comments would be welcome although I imagine it too boring a stock for some....
 
I bought some of these a few months ago and am very happy so far as the price has been going up ever since.
 
BWP is on my watchlist of REIT's but is not one that I try to trade. The two year chart as at 16 November 2012 shows that BWP has enjoyed an enviable climb from the low of August 2011.

bwp 2012-11-19 2year.png

The six month chart (as at today) shows that BWP peaked at $2.15 interday on October 30, 2012 then suffered the ignominy of most REIT's subsequent to the re-election of Barak Obama and retreated to $2.03 on 13 November 2012. Since then BWP has climbed back to $2.09 and appears to be holding the upward channel.

bwp 2012-11-20.png

However the table for BWP shows that BWP is paying an annual dividend of $0.135 on earnings of $0.134. The ROE is only 6.41% and the share price of $2.09 is at 12.9% premium to the NTA of $1.85. On the plus side the Price/earnings ratio is only 15.6 times.

Share: BWP
Date: Closing 20-11-12
Closing Price 2.09
Issued Shares 525,255,093
Capital 1,097,783,144
Earnings $ 0.1340
ROE 6.41%
Dist $ 0.135
Yield % 6.46%
P/E 15.60
NTA $ 1.85
Discount to NTA -12.97%


The biggest problem for me with BWP is the low daily turnover. The low liquidity combined with the tight daily price movement spread of 1-2 cents, in my opinion, makes it a hard share to trade. However, if it was a share purchased in the August 2011 lows, the yield of 6.46% on the current price (better on the August 2011 price) would make it a different proposition. In those circumstances, it would be dependant on "the trend is my friend" outlook, combined with a trailing stop loss. Good luck to those that hold or want to take a punt but not for me. As always do your own research and good luck. :)
 
BWP surged unexpectedly on Friday 15/3/2013 to a new high. However this week BWP dropped back significantly, I wonder if this is a sign that it is peaking?

bwp 2013-03-21.png

BWP has been a bit of an outperformer in the A-REIT sector since August last year. Rising well above the NTA seemingly unstopable. You would think at some stage the share price would plateau but each time I think it can't sustain the rise, it moves up to a new level.

Share: BWP
Date: 22-Mar-13
Closing Price 2.38
Issued Shares 525,255,093
Capital 1,250,107,121
Earnings $ 0.1645
ROE 6.91%
Dist $ 0.139
Yield % 5.83%
P/E 14.47
NTA $ 1.87
Discount to NTA -27.27%


To rich for me and to tight a daily spread for me to trade with confidence. An excelent share for early investor holders, though I suspect a few of them will be looking at locking in profits at these levels. As always do your own research and good luck. :)
 
BWP seems to have leveled off in recent weeks.

bwp 2013-04-05.png


The chartist can tell us if there is a pennant forming and whether there will be a break out upward or downward. The volume analysts can tell us whether there is sell presure or buyer support building.

Share: BWP
Date: 5-Apr-13
Closing Price $2.38
Issued Shares 525,255,093
Capital 1,250,107,121
Earnings $ 0.1645
ROE 6.91%
Dist $ 0.139
Yield % 5.83%
P/E 14.47
NTA $ 1.87
Discount to NTA -27.27%

In the meantime the profit takers are being matched by the yield security buyers and the volitility can make for some tight trading opportunities. As always, do your own research and good luck. :)
 
Just bought a few for $2.28

BWP$2.30P/E Ratio12.4

Year 2012A2013A2014E2015E
NPAT ($m)70.5775.7789.1797.68
EPS (c)13.5214.2414.5515.44
% Change9.25.282.226.08
DPS (c)13.514.1414.615.44
Franking(%)0000
Yield (%)7.76.466.356.71
PER (x)12.9715.3815.8114.9
 
Got another lot today. @ $2.25

Divi due later this month. 3 divis in 13-14mths then I'll take another look at off-loading them.
 
BWP seems to have an intrinsic market value around $2.30. It goes up and it goes down but it always seems to fluctuate around the $2.30 mark.

bwp 2014-04-11.png

Is it time to short BWP? After all, it is restricted to Bunnings Warehouse sites and has limited opportunity for future earnings growth. Or am I missing something? As always do your own research and good luck. :)
 
UMike said:
Got another lot today. @ $2.25

Divi due later this month. 3 divis in 13-14mths then I'll take another look at off-loading them.
Click to expand...

True to my word.... Out today. Stunned at the 30% plus 3 dividends.

Pity I just missed out getting more of these early October When I refused to offer any more than $2,32.
 
Yesterdays Jump is a bit hard to understand.

bwp 2015-01-08.png

Mind you, even at $2.90 it still has a good yield and a low price earnings ratio compared to other A-REIT's.

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Premium to NTA
BWP
2.900 ​
1,855,201,995​
0.2434​
8.39%​
0.1471​
5.07%​
11.91​
2.07​
40.10%​
 
Looking through the charts from nulla-nulla's post in the A-REIT Valuation model thread.

There is a classic ascending triangle in the BWP chart. The AT target is 3.05 + 0.30 = 3.35

bwp130315.PNG
 
$3.05 has been a significant resistance level over the last few months. The low may have been getting higher but the market has lacked confidence to push the highs higher.

bwp 2015-03-13.png

At $3.05 BWP is probably still a good long term investment for yield chasers but I suspect it will only leap ahead on the back of an overall sector rise.


Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Premium to NTA
BWP
3.050 ​
1,959,270,599​
0.3155​
10.34%​
0.1555​
5.10%​
9.67​
2.18​
39.91%​


At $3.35 BWP would still have a low price earnings ratio compared to other A-REIT's but the income is still limited to the Bunning sites and the opportunities to boost earnings and yields is limited. Unless they bring in partners to take equity in sites while BWP retains management rights and they take up equity/management of non Bunnings sites, I think their growth prospects are limited.

Code Closing Price Capital Earnings $ ROE Dist $ Yield % P/E NTA $ Premium to NTA
BWP
3.350 ​
2,151,985,740​
0.3155​
9.42%​
0.1555​
4.64%​
10.62​
2.18​
53.67%​

Mind you I was surprised that the share price made it to $3.05. As always do your own research and good luck. :)
 
This share has dropped from an interday high of $3.91 on 2/8/16 to an interday low of $3.11 (before closing on $3.32) on Friday 26/8/16. That's a 20% drop in just over 3 weeks. Any one know why?

bwp 2016-08-26.png
 
nulla nulla said:
This share has dropped from an interday high of $3.91 on 2/8/16 to an interday low of $3.11 (before closing on $3.32) on Friday 26/8/16. That's a 20% drop in just over 3 weeks. Any one know why?
Click to expand...

I heard that 6 or 7 Bunnings stores will close...something like that.
 
BWP is probably sold under panic. What I read about seven stores that BWP was compensated for lease break out and per BWP management report, it is not a significant issue for their profitability.
Notwithstanding Motley Fool has still kept it as BUY (please double check) and Shaw Brokers has published SELL recommendation today
I personally sold BWP few months ago but I am never an astute trader or investor by my own performance . SO DYOR

"BWP Trust (BWP)

Rating: Sell | Risk: Low | Price Target: $2.89Bunnings vacating ~7 BWP properties; FY17 guidance unchanged; Medium term impact TBD

Event: Bunnings has advised BWP of its intention to vacate “up to seven” existing properties owned by BWP. This event was largely foreshadowed by the announcement from Bunnings on 24 Aug 2016. BWP has reaffirmed FY17 DPS guidance of “about 3 %” growth.

Recommendation: There is no shorter term impact on BWP’s earnings as Bunnings is responsible for paying rent up until the end of its existing lease term at each property. The medium to long term potential earning impact of these departures is dependent upon whether BWP: (1) looks to re-lease the properties to other tenants (i.e. bulky good retailers); (2) redevelop the sites for alternative uses; or (3) sell the properties. Clearly options 2 & 3 would be EPS dilutive until either redevelopment is completed or funds are reinvested. Quantifying the exact impact is difficult at present given the lack of detail. By way of sensitivity, if we assume the stores are smaller-sized (say $15m average value) and average about $1.3m pa of rent, then under a sale scenario there would be a ~2.5% dilutive impact to EPS on an annualised basis (pre any reinvestment of proceeds). We will revisit our EPS estimates as/when more detail is provided. Regardless, we continue to see BWP as fully valued and retain our SELL."
 
Miner said:
BWP is probably sold under panic. What I read about seven stores that BWP was compensated for lease break out and per BWP management report, it is not a significant issue for their profitability.
Click to expand...

BWP is a large REIT and like most large conservatively run trusts they have many conservative share holders, conservative = easily spooked, institutions, superfunds etc.
 
Haven't owned these since I sold out mid 2014.

Looking to get back in with the SMSF since the results look better than solid.
 
The recent BO-HR after a long basing pattern is interesting.
I've included it in a conservative 'low activity' portfolio.

BWP2109.PNG
 

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