Improving Chart Analysis

barney · 13 March 2007

tech/a said:
Well I'm pretty sure this is the top of Wave "B". The highest we will see it for sometime.
Just over 61.8% retracement of the fast corrective move.

Noticed last week that my longterm portfolios came off even more than in the week of the larger drop. To me this shows a lot of un loading of positions.
Pretty well all of those held in my long term portfolio are in the ASX 200.

Any chance of a chart to describe the EW on that thanks Tech.

As Coyotte mentioned ......... "descending triangle" ....... lower highs equal lows ............ bearish signal .........

Buyers seem to jump in everytime ZFX gets around the $16.30 "bottom" over the past few days ............ Wonder if it will hold??

tech/a · 13 March 2007

My amateur E/W below.

IFocus · 13 March 2007

Should the down side come i like the AFI coil

Focus

coyotte · 13 March 2007

A Adv-GET's view of the XJO -- @ close 12/03/07

If "A" is correct then .618 is reached as "B" --- Mag says possible move upto .75

If "B" is correct @ .618 or 5895 -- then

Wave 1 from "C" = 5150-4760 =390

Thus 5895 less 390 = 5505 = end of Wave C.

If B is not correct and moves higher, then from that HIGH less 390 = end of Wave C.

If Wave C is truncated, then thats supposed to be a very bullish sign.

But from what I seem to follow though is first u must determine whether the stock or index is following EW rules, as apparently only around a third of the XJO do so.

Just my 2 bobs worth -- this stuff all looks great in hindsight.

Cheers

coyotte · 13 March 2007

FOOTNOTE:

But all this can be aload of rubbish -- AdvGET has the XJO in a Intermediate Wave 5 correction Within a Major Wave 3 correction -- which as I understand will not be anywhere severe as if it was a Major Wave 5 correction.

EW ?????

Cheers

tech/a · 13 March 2007

Coyotte.

I do understand the frustration. But it isnt the sort of analysis you'll pick up in a week or so or off the first or even the 3rd book you'll read.

But it does come together.
AGET uses only 250 bars so you wont get a full count.
Yes it will re label wave counts as they become Disproven.

Everything you see from moggi's top to this corrective wave pattern is in the process of being proven OR disproven.

Simply trade the market the way its being PROVEN.
When its not then your saved by stops (Thats where you put them---where the analysis is proven wrong) and you trade either something else or to the analysis which is THEN in the process of --- prove disprove.

Take the time it will be worth it!

coyotte · 13 March 2007

Thanks Tech

But is my basic EW analysis in the ballpark?

Cheers

tech/a · 13 March 2007

Coyotte.

To be honest the exact measurements of corrective waves,Ive not bothered with,I dont trade them---They can be very complex--but so far from a basic view they are proving pretty right.

This is expected to be a more complex corrective pattern so the ABC is expected to form into a 5 wave move which will be either A or Wave 1 in a down trend---as I understand it.

So far its playing out as "expected" I would argue.
While we cant say with definity what the wave action will play out to---we can say that if this happens then it means this and if it doesnt then it means that.

Sounds like another language but its not really.
Sorry I cant be of more help.

I've not yet finished the 3 yr apprenticeship.

Bobby · 13 March 2007

tech/a said:
.
While we cant say with definity what the wave action will play out to---we can say that if this happens then it means this and if it doesnt then it means that.

Sounds like another language but its not really.
Sorry I cant be of more help.

I've not yet finished the 3 yr apprenticeship.

Hello Tech,

Got that, to reiterate the wave will do its thing, whilst followers will think it will do their thing.

Tried EW, not for me.

Bob.

It's Snake Pliskin · 14 March 2007

barney said:
Any chance of a chart to describe the EW on that thanks Tech.

As Coyotte mentioned ......... "descending triangle" ....... lower highs equal lows ............ bearish signal .........

Buyers seem to jump in everytime ZFX gets around the $16.30 "bottom" over the past few days ............ Wonder if it will hold??

Hi Barney,

Good to see you all over these charts. I have attached a chart for you to look at. Sorry it is from my not trading computer so i had to roughly edit it from windows and looks rough. As you can see the indicators do nothing to inspire a long entry and price is confirming. Look at the lead up to the action as of now, some distribution maybe?

Take care
Snake

pacer · 14 March 2007

ZFX is impossibly graphable...there are bigger things going on in the world THAN that we know of...all systems and programs will suck over the next 10 years...IMO we are in a new wave of speculation, especialy with CFD trading coming in ...it wil be a rocky road.

I went to a CFD seminar last weekend for a giggle....they try to sell you a program, that is CRACKED already AND DOWNLOADABLE, for $3000...downloaded it with the crack and did a comparison with cracked metastock........these guys are charletons....talked to a few people there at this so called seminar and gave them more info in 5 mins than they got all day out of these guys...

Me and my mate were sooo bored after 5 minutes...we sat outside and chatted to any smokers that came out and nearly had a bigger crowd...!!

Some had heard of hotcopper...blech.....and some that were keen I suggested ASF to....but most had no idea....

It's no wonder 90% of traders fail in the first year with idiot's trying to sell a program that'll take 2 years to master and books and .....stufff that'll cost youi$$ ....you could have made a $$$on....by just coming here and reading all posts by TECH-A or others.......

AND DYOR....bar the corrections..but I love corrections...I double up going south......how hard is that!....CFD's...gotta luvem'

Blah blah blAH......GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD TRADING GUYS.

It's Snake Pliskin · 14 March 2007

pacer said:
ZFX is impossibly graphable...there are bigger things going on in the world THAN that we know of...all systems and programs will suck over the next 10 years...IMO we are in a new wave of speculation, especialy with CFD trading coming in ...it wil be a rocky road.

I went to a CFD seminar last weekend for a giggle....they try to sell you a program, that is CRACKED already AND DOWNLOADABLE, for $3000...downloaded it with the crack and did a comparison with cracked metastock........these guys are charletons....talked to a few people there at this so called seminar and gave them more info in 5 mins than they got all day out of these guys...

Me and my mate were sooo bored after 5 minutes...we sat outside and chatted to any smokers that came out and nearly had a bigger crowd...!!

Some had heard of hotcopper...blech.....and some that were keen I suggested ASF to....but most had no idea....

It's no wonder 90% of traders fail in the first year with idiot's trying to sell a program that'll take 2 years to master and books and .....stufff that'll cost youi$$ ....you could have made a $$$on....by just coming here and reading all posts by TECH-A or others.......

AND DYOR....bar the corrections..but I love corrections...I double up going south......how hard is that!....CFD's...gotta luvem'

Blah blah blAH......GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD TRADING GUYS.

Pacer,
the lazy seek easy answers.
Your not lazy because you run all the time

I agree CFD's are not bad.

barney · 14 March 2007

It's Snake Pliskin said:
Hi Barney,

Good to see you all over these charts. I have attached a chart for you to look at. Sorry it is from my not trading computer so i had to roughly edit it from windows and looks rough. As you can see the indicators do nothing to inspire a long entry and price is confirming. Look at the lead up to the action as of now, some distribution maybe?

Take care
Snake

Hi Snake, Agree with the "distribution". I've been watching the price action on ZFX very closely over the past couple of days particularly (my eyes are now square

............. Even to my untrained eyes, the selloff has been building ............ Still interesting that enough buyers jump in to halt the potential capitulation at the $16.30 's, to the point that the sp actually rallies end of day ........... Some large parcels go through at times, so I assume this is mainly "fundies" selling to other fundies (the ones distributing) .......... I guess it just proves the point that everyone can percieve the market differently at different points in time ............ certainly an interesting stock to "study" .......... often seems to do the exact opposite of "logic" (Is the market ever logical though

Cheers.

tech/a · 14 March 2007

ZFX is impossibly graphable...there are bigger things going on in the world THAN that we know of...all systems and programs will suck over the next 10 years...IMO we are in a new wave of speculation, especialy with CFD trading coming in ...it wil be a rocky road.

I went to a CFD seminar last weekend for a giggle....they try to sell you a program, that is CRACKED already AND DOWNLOADABLE, for $3000...downloaded it with the crack and did a comparison with cracked metastock........these guys are charletons....talked to a few people there at this so called seminar and gave them more info in 5 mins than they got all day out of these guys...

Pacer.
While I have no idea about the software your talking about.

There is some brilliant software out there.
You and anyone else who wishes to succeed in this business will have to do the HARD yards. The YEARS of pouring over charts and LEARNING those analysis skills which will put you well ahead of the 90% who DONT.
I'm still learning 12 yrs in!

The next few years will be challenging.
Best be prepared or sitting on the sidelines getting prepared.

Improving Chart Analysis

barney

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