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gsnz1

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I am looking at getting a parcel in QR National IPO which i believe will be highly publicised. What are people's thoughts on the float, is it going to be good or bad? With the mining company consortium dropping their bid for the co. after having access to the financials etc leads me to think that it may not be an outstanding investment. Due to the media hype it will get, will it be a good IPO to get into for the initial interest by the public then sell within the first couple of days of trading on asx?
The pre registartion website is www dot qrnshareoffer dot com dot au for anyone that has not heard about it yet and wants to register.
With the international demand for Oz resources QR National will be busy for a while into the future you would have to think.

700 locos, 16000 wagons, 9500 employees

FY2010 Volumes

Queensland Bulk and Freight
QR National haulage: 14 million tonnes

Queensland Coal
QR National above rail haulage:
180 million tonnes
Central Queensland
Below rail haulage: 185 million tonnes
New South Wales Coal
QR National haulage: 18 million tonnes
Western Australia Bulk
QR National haulage: 46 million tonnes
Intermodal
(Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria,
South Australia and Western Australia)
QR National haulage: 4 million tonnes

Lots to research but I appreciate all feedback
Cheers
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

I have a question.

Do the Queensland Government hold an AFSL?

By promoting this offering as a sound investment they are providing financial advice to the masses. My understanding is that they would need to abide by the 'know your client' rule. This means assessing risk tolerance profiles and ensuring that everyone has completed their Data Collection Forms. Also they hold a considerable stake in this company, this presents a massive conflict of interest which needs to be fully disclosed.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

I would personally steer well clear of any float like this that offers incentives for mum & dad investors to buy and hold. All they are trying to do is get a price above market value to strengthen gov coffers and pass the loss on to taxpayers :2twocents
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

QRNational is poorly run.... I know this.... 1 derailment like the blackmountain one again would cruel the SP. Rail should never have been sold imho. QRN is too focused on Zero Harm that production never gets a chance. This is a strong DO NOT BUY from me anyways.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

Hi
If the collective debt of the states is $240bullion.
If the Federal debt is in excess of $50bullion.
Why would anybody think it would make a profit or pay
a sustainable dividend?
This is not a financial gain for investors.
It is a deal to keep the people happy who oppose the sale.
Bligh is saying " we need the money, the people oppose the sale"
Solution " you people who oppose it buy it."

Well Anna is trying to sell us something we already paid for.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

joea said:
Hi
If the collective debt of the states is $240bullion.
If the Federal debt is in excess of $50bullion.
Why would anybody think it would make a profit or pay
a sustainable dividend?
This is not a financial gain for investors.
It is a deal to keep the people happy who oppose the sale.
Bligh is saying " we need the money, the people oppose the sale"
Solution " you people who oppose it buy it."

Well Anna is trying to sell us something we already paid for.
Click to expand...


I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

BrightGreenGlow said:
I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!
Click to expand...

I'm sure they would make everyone hang onto them for x years before they can sell.

Don't know why people bother with floats they always seem to end with people getting burned but yet everyone lines up for them.:rolleyes:
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

QR is a pretty inefficient organisation that's for sure, although my last experience dealing with them was a good 5-6 years ago. They sent about 8 ppl to a meeting with a contractor talking about building a chainwire fence that's may be worth $30K...

Anyhow, are the financials and price even out yet? If not then may be we shouldn't be so quick jumping to conclusions?

To me the macro industry trend is positive, the internal management is horrible but that also means lot of room for improvement, the balance sheet is quite strong... so at the right price it could be a decent investment.

prawn_86 said:
I would personally steer well clear of any float like this that offers incentives for mum & dad investors to buy and hold. All they are trying to do is get a price above market value to strengthen gov coffers and pass the loss on to taxpayers :2twocents
Click to expand...

Don't forget that the tax payers are also voters so Anna Bligh can't screw them too much.


Junior said:
I have a question.

Do the Queensland Government hold an AFSL?
Click to expand...

The same situation for Jen Hawko spruiking the Myer float! I doubt she had any AFSL!
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

Prospectus is not even out yet.

But according to SMH, QR is to be valued at about $6.5 billion, after a failed $5 billion bid by major coal companies to buy the rail network. So I guess it will be worth a punt if market cap falls below $5 bil.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

BrightGreenGlow said:
I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!
Click to expand...

Perhaps employees can short it? lol
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

BrightGreenGlow said:
I will guarantee everyone here the SP will drop big time. Every employee that receives the $1,000 of free shares are planning on selling out straight away. This is terrible news... watch it drop!!
Click to expand...

QR only has ~9000 employees so that's $9m worth of shares at most... hardly going to cause a ripple.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

Of course that wouldn't affect it much but only silly people will buy QR. Rail is too dependant on everything going right. Remember the Vic, Tasmania and PN-NZ rail? Failures. The only successful privately owned rail is that Canadian one... BNSC or w/e its called.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

There is a lot of negative feedback from people i've spoken to today (mum and dad type investors and work colleagues) and read on the various forums. I am going to spend some time researching and wait for all the fine print to come out and the prospectus. I dont know much about the directors and other top ranking staff yet either (is there a chance they could make things work? Unlikely with the major shareholder being a band of politicians?)
lusk Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

I'm sure they would make everyone hang onto them for x years before they can sell.

Don't know why people bother with floats they always seem to end with people getting burned but yet everyone lines up for them.
Click to expand...

Lusk, some IPO's are ok. take GUF as an example.

Thanks all for the feedback.

PS: If it was Peter Beattie selling the IPO and not Anna Bligh, would that change any opinions? Politicians are all spin doctors no matter what their name is but it appears people i have spoken to have a little more respect for him over the current leader
 
Queensland Rail National Float

Does anyone here know how this works apparently there is no price given for the IPO yet they are starting to ask people to pre-register! why would you want to buy something without knowing the price first surely the Queensland Government must know by now what is the going price otherwise how do they know how much they are going to get :confused:

laurie
 
Re: Queensland Rail National Float

Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

laurie said:
Does anyone here know how this works apparently there is no price given for the IPO yet they are starting to ask people to pre-register! why would you want to buy something without knowing the price first surely the Queensland Government must know by now what is the going price otherwise how do they know how much they are going to get :confused:

laurie
Click to expand...

The price will be determined based on a process called bookbuild. The same was done for the recent Myer float. Read it up.

ParleVouFrancois said:
Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?
Click to expand...

Australian govt has a habit of selling things too cheaply. Some of the large floats in the past include CBA, QAN, CSL. Here's an academic paper about underpricing IPOs if you are interested...

http://www.agsm.edu.au/eajm/0112/pdf/gong.pdf

Telstra was a special case. Telstra 1 was actually a great bargin ($2.50 from memory and it rose to $9 at the dot com peak), T2 was sold at the top of the cycle - so well done to the govn't and bad luck to Mum & Dad, while T3 was completely destroyed by the govn't changing the rules of the game.

Having said all that each float prob needs to be considered on its own merits.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

good or bad we don't know until the prospectus is available
I dont rule anything in or out until I have information in hand

Crazy compare it to Telstra or other floats, each floats has its own risk
and merits and up to you whether you want to participate.

if you see bad floats like Myers and Kathmandu and stuff that because the number doesn't add up :D

then you see float like JB hi-fi from private equity and our beloved Woolie
recapitalises from a near dead experience and went on to dominate the market :D
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

BrightGreenGlow said:
Rail is too dependant on everything going right. Remember the Vic, Tasmania and PN-NZ rail? Failures.
Click to expand...

Its a monopoly operator, as im assuming it has a monopoly hauling coal to the coast in central QLD...hard to see it as a failure, at least in the short term.

I wonder if QRN owns the tracks/network or if its just the rolling stock etc. :dunno:

-------------------

Anyway lots of potential if a few things go there way...first they will have to clean out all the useless employee's, maybe half of them would have to go...get some kick ass management that can transform QRN into a lean, mean, profit driven organisation.

I pre-registered. :)

-------------------------

ParleVouFrancois said:
Does anyone have any historical data for public assets that have been floated? e.g. Telstra has been a bit of a dog since listing, any other public assets I should look at before considering investing in QR? Does the australian government have a habit of selling off assets at too high a price?
Click to expand...

CSL floated in 1994 at $2.40 per share....traded at close to $100.00 per share in 2006/7 before the 3 for 1 split.
 
Re: QRNational IPO good or bad?

skc said:
QR only has ~9000 employees so that's $9m worth of shares at most... hardly going to cause a ripple.
Click to expand...

Typical Chinese whisper because your mate think it's a bad deal without any hard facts ...

the prospectus isn't out and every man and a dog has a bad opinion on it

bad deal, price drop, everyone sell out, bad management, badly run.
mum and dad get burned, anything else :D

a wise man once said

“A wise man makes his own decisions, an ignorant man follows public opinion”
 
Re: QR National IPO: Good or bad?

Does anyone know why the mining group dropped their bid?
($5.1b up from $4.85b)

Is $7b too much?







http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Miners-pull-out-of-rail-offer-95B9M?OpenDocument

The Queensland Coal Industry Rail Group (QCIRG) has dropped its $5.1 billion bid for the coal-haulage rail network of QR, the group said.

The consortium of miners, led by BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto Ltd and Xstrata put together the bid to counter a plan by the Queensland government to float QR National on the stock exchange by the end of the year.

In a statement, the consortium said it would not be lodging the offer as "QCIRG is not able to satisfy its, or the Queensland government's, requirements for the bid".

"QCIRG appreciates the efforts made by the Queensland state government during negotiations," the statement said.

"QCIRG reiterates that coal rail system arrangements are critical for the industry and it will seek to work constructively with the Queensland government on alternative arrangements to realise system efficiency and future growth."
Click to expand...



http://www.bulkhandling.com.au/news...-up-their-bid-for-qrs-coal-rail-track-network

The consortium, known as the Queensland Coal Industry Rail Group (QCIRG) and chaired by former NSW premier Nick Greiner, was this week reported to have raised its bid for the coal rail track network from $4.85bn to around $5.1bn or $5.2bn, apparently in an attempt to head off state government plans to float QR National's coal and bulk freight assets.
Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and her Treasurer Andrew Fraser have so far held firm in their ambition to sell QR National’s integrated rail network and freight operator into an initial public offering (IPO) before the end of the year.
However, the coal miners in QCIRG are concerned that the structure of the sale will stifle competition and growth of the network. In response, they have banded together, with Nick Greiner at the helm, to offer a simpler transaction immune to the vagaries of world equity markets.
“We have considered the alternative model under the IPO and associated regulation and legislation and strongly believe it does not represent an optimal or even reasonable basis for assuring the future of the state’s major export industry,” said Mr Greiner, chairman, QCIRG.
“The QCIRG offer has four goals: to encourage fair and open access, optimise network performance, enable early system expansions, and encourage rail haulage competition, all with flow-on benefits through enhanced investment, employment and royalties.”
The QCIRG offer, for the below track rail assets, excludes QR National’s above rail rolling stock assets and the freight businesses of QR National. In contrast, the IPO option is for both the above and below rail assets, including trains.
QCIRG, which represents 98% of Queensland’s miners, has so far been denied access to the QR National data room.
Click to expand...
 
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