Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

An attack on Fibonacci numbers...

Jump to new
With a come back like that he's good enough to be on some trading floor! :)

Here is/was my analysis, but this was part of 3-days of various time analysis and my actions were based on the confluence of all parts of those, including patterns and volume. In other words its not just fib numbers. Volume is still bearish and what we're seeing here is a lesson (regardless of whether my trade works or not) and that is that during down moves the bullish spikes can be devestating for short positions. Its a real test for the mind, but watching the volume rather than the price can help you along.

MONTHLY XAO ANALYSIS
 
Here is tonights chart of CSM that shows exactly how I think and what I look for. It contains fibo retracements, but as you'll see it combines a lot more.

This video runs for 5-mins so it will take a minute or so to load. If the commentary starts before the chart, just select stop, then play to start again.

CSM - EXAMPLE

We'll see how it plays out over the coming week.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
 
chemist said:
All of the published forms of TA are rubbish.

cheers,
chemist
Click to expand...

T/a is a set of tools.. a hammer, a chisel and a saw etc (if you will)

I have seen some truly crappy work with the above implements, yet with those same tools, I have seen people create truly brilliant work.

No, published forms of t/a are not rubbish. There are merely poor practitioners of such.

;)
 
Nick Radge said:
Here is tonights chart of CSM that shows exactly how I think and what I look for. It contains fibo retracements, but as you'll see it combines a lot more.

This video runs for 5-mins so it will take a minute or so to load. If the commentary starts before the chart, just select stop, then play to start again.

CSM - EXAMPLE

We'll see how it plays out over the coming week.





This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
Click to expand...

Excellent video Nick, very easy to follow, like your book.

I know you can't give us too much free stuff on here when you have paying clients, but your insights are invaluable to us newbies, and I suspect even the more experienced get something out of it as well.

I find that when you find a stock that has truly stuck to the fib rules it more often than not carry's on doing so.Definately opened my eyes to what I felt previously was a load of old cobblers.:xyxthumbs
 
No, published forms of t/a are not rubbish. There are merely poor practitioners of such.

Totally agree.

Unsuccessful/poor traders blame their tools,others tools,the market,others perception of the market,thier analysis,your analysis,their timing,your timing,their wife,your wife,---you get the picture.
 
Nick Radge said:
With a come back like that he's good enough to be on some trading floor! :)

Here is/was my analysis, but this was part of 3-days of various time analysis and my actions were based on the confluence of all parts of those, including patterns and volume. In other words its not just fib numbers. Volume is still bearish and what we're seeing here is a lesson (regardless of whether my trade works or not) and that is that during down moves the bullish spikes can be devestating for short positions. Its a real test for the mind, but watching the volume rather than the price can help you along.

MONTHLY XAO ANALYSIS
Click to expand...

Hi Nick,

A very interesting example of ratio analysis of the XAO. At an initial glance the the 5 wave count that you have numbered seems the obvious one and is also what most elliotticians would numbered. Time and price are certainly coming hinting to a possible pivot at 5300.

Looking into the wave count a little further however, could it not be a possibility that 5300 maybe marking the end of (3) instead? The reason I ask this because the momentum between 1988-2002 was rather sluggish in comparison to 2003-present. Certainly not what you would expect of a third wave. Either way I guess it does not matter because both wave counts imply the same thing, a possible decline.

Cheers
 
Wavepicker,
Spot on. We're in a minor degree wave-3 higher still. We're yet to get, (or was that it?) the wave-4 then the last wave-5. The example was where alignment occurs, but fib's (or any part of trading) is not an exact science. My recent comments to clients was that I was looking for a move back to 5158 as a measured move out of an ascending wedge and not the end of the world. That pattern would complete the minor degree wave-4 then we'd commence the last ascent higher. And this is why I'm short...and appear to be wrong. All I do is allow the market to validate or invalidate my analysis and trade around that.

Porper,
These little things are everywhere and admitedly I tend to rush more often than not and miss the gems. I'll post another example a little later.

Nick
 
The chart at the start of this thread was the XAO on a larger timeframe. Here is the XJO, on a weekly time frame. Different wave degree altogether yet we still get the fib numbers working. More importantly the volume was suggesting that things were not actually that healthy. Weakness shows as prices are rising. Gold, OXR and LHG all showed the same thinigs. Prices can't rise if professional money is distributing!


xjo5mo.png
 
not from the 4th(nowhere near as big a kahunas as you sir!), but I'd be lying if I said I didn't hold a few in the money puts presently. Turned out to be a very nice call on your part!
 
Re:Fibonacci numbers...

Well I`m not really into fibonacci but for observation sake i`m putting this chart in to see how we go over the next 5 months with the high and low on a chart of the Aus 200.

I suppose it`s just to see if % lines become support (if uptrend to be confirmed) or resistance but I may need a bigger time frame. :eek: :2twocents Should be a good fibonacci ratios test anyway.

As can be seen on the chart presently (horizontal lines) the sideways movement is nearing a trend breakout one way or the other.

Remembering last January the 200 shed about 1000 points in about 20 days.
It won`t be the same this January.

Oh, if anyone uses fibonacci please have a type.
 

Attachments

  • untitled.jpg
    untitled.jpg
    85 KB · Views: 7
Gregory L. Morris, in The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators, has a very interesting comment about Fibonacci numbers.

It is the ratio, or better know as the golden ratio, that is more interesting, not the numbers of any series in themselves - it is not unique to the Fibonacci series.

Any 2 numbers expanded in a similar fashion will produce a similar ratio.
 
Top