Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

"The best place to be is in commodities"

September 10, 2007

Australia’s Bauxite Boom Gathers Pace

By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com/aus.html
[Free Registration]

Bauxite, the mineral which eventually becomes aluminium, continues its remarkable revival as an exploration target in Australia. Hot on the heels of a search by United Minerals and its big Norwegian partner, Norsk Hydro, comes what is believed to be the first pure bauxite float on the Australian Securities Exchange. The aptly-named Bauxite Resources Ltd is looking to raise a miniscule A$5 million, hardly enough to scratch the surface of the targets it has lined up. Highest on the list is an area around the west coast settlement of Muchea which, for old readers, instantly brings back memories of an earlier, and unhappy time, in the Australian bauxite/alumina/aluminium industry – not to mention a couple of once great names who tried for more than a decade to mine the bauxite near Muchea.
Lang Hancock, a legend in the iron ore industry, and his partner, the late Peter Wright, once formed a joint venture with the sugar-producer, CSR (Colonial Sugar Refineries) known as Pacminex. The project, which chewed up A$2 million (A$60 million in today’s money) from the mid-1960s to the mid-70s, was designed to rival the mines and refineries build by Alcoa and Western Mining Corporation further to the south along a geological structure known as the Darling Scarp. Low prices, environmental protests, and internal bickering, eventually saw the Pacminex name disappear. But the bauxite remained.

Enter a small team of eager young explorationists led by lawyer, Luke Atkins. They have acquired three areas for their float of Bauxite Resources, two in the Darling Range (Muchea and South Darling) and one in the Mitchell Plateau, 3000 kilometres to the north, and not far from the tenements being explored by United and Norsk, and also close to a big swag of country held by Rio Tinto and Alcoa. It is at this point that a light bulb should be flickering in the brain of the average investor, tapping out a signal along the lines of “what’s happened, why has bauxite suddenly become so sexy”.

The answer, somewhat curiously, lies in the price of oil. As it rises, all other power sources rise in sympathy. And, as the cost of power rises so does everyone look for ways to cut their power bills, with one of the best ways, especially for aviation and road transport, to move even more heavily into lightweight metals. Rio Tinto’s merger with Canada’s Alcan (to become Rio Tinto Alcan) is the best illustration of the extremely bright long-term outlook for aluminum, and its precursor mineral, bauxite. If BHP Billiton should do what some observers believe, and launch a takeover bid for Alcoa, or Rio Tinto Alcan, then interest in bauxite will go through the roof. If there is to be a bauxite stampede, and these are very early days, then the best place to find the stuff is in Australia, or countries close to the equator where the tropical sun and heavy rain, has leached the soil to form layers of alumina rich cap-rock.

United’s plan, which Minesite reported several weeks ago, is to explore on its own tenements which encircle those of Rio Tinto and Alcoa on the Mitchell Plateau, and perhaps go as far as building a multi-billion dollar alumina refinery. At some stage United and Norsk might even suggest that since neither Rio Tinto nor Alcoa has done much to mine their bauxite then the “use it, or lose it” principal of Australian mining law ought to be applied. Bauxite Resources is being a little less aggressive, so far. It proposes to explore its tenements on its own at this stage, and look more towards a “direct shipping” proposal which would see bauxite, grading around 34%, exported direct to markets such as China and/or the Middle East.

Atkins told Minesite that exports could be comfortably handled through a number of ports, with the start-up target being a relatively lowly one million tonnes a year. Given that bauxite is currently fetching around US$45 a tonne, that represents a potential start-up annual cash flow of US$45 million – and all from a mining process which genuine hard-rock men call “gardening” because all that has to be done is blast the cap rock, scoop it up, separate out residual vegetation, perhaps upgrade modestly by removing any silica, and then off to market.

Said quickly and it sounds easy, and it remains to be seen whether Australian investors are yet ready to embrace bauxite as the next hot commodity in the five-year mining boom. Atkins thinks they are, obviously. He says Bauxite Resources will be the only “junior entry” with its foot in the world-class Darling Range area. “We’re planning to review historic data, including mountains of documents, and then look to establish a JORC resource,” he said. “Expanding world demand for bauxite means there is real potential to ship directly to China.”

He’s right. But launching a new bauxite mine in the Darling Range will be tough. Pacminex failed, perhaps for internal reasons. Alcoa continues to battle environmental protests over its mining in the Range which is also a prime water source for much of south-west Western Australia. There is also the potential for Alcoa, and the Worsley joint venture, which is run by BHP Billiton, to object to Bauxite Resources exploring in some areas, a point Atkins acknowledges, but is confident that negotiations will lead to his company gaining access.

Whether Atkins succeeds, or not, is probably irrelevant for investors, unless they want a slice of the action . The key consideration is that this is the latest example of bauxite forcing its way onto the investment stage, and it will probably not be the last. It might be time to brush up on a mineral which appears to have a found a fresh life.
 
Global context for commodity fund-buying
Jessica Cross, CEO, VM Group
21 Sep 2007
Source: www.miningmx.com

WHAT kind of world are we living in where the price of nickel can rise 12% in a day – as it did on the LME on Wednesday September 19? Not long ago that kind of rise might be regarded as quite decent over a year.

So what happened? Nothing special really by way of news that day. A few stainless steel producers have been talking about how they might start buying more nickel again. But if all it takes to get speculative buyers excited is a few rumblings like that, we are living in very odd times.

Consequently investment money is still sloshing around in vast quantities in commodities, and for some very sound underlying reasons. It’s not just the old China factor – rapidly expanding urbanisation. The same is happening in India, Brazil and other big economies where the game today is catching up with already well-developed countries.

Demand for lots of commodities, in some base metals, some agricultural products, and energy, is growing at an unprecedented pace in newly emerging economies.

The supply-side lag in commodities is profound. In base metals lack of investment in the mining industry has made itself felt across most base metals, tipping them into steep and prolonged backwardation. Research we have commissioned suggests that primary supply projections are currently considerably overstating the reality of how the miners are able to respond to these tight markets.

This revolution in commodity demand and potentially serious shortfall in supply is grist to the mill of a wide range of investors – hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and private individuals.

Commodities have weathered the recent credit crisis far better those most other investments. Largely because of uncertainty over whether or not slowly growing (and frequently interrupted) supply is going to be enough to cope with strongly growing (and rarely interrupted) demand.

In addition, the end of the Cold War era has resulted not in brotherly love and harmony, but a situation where geo-political uncertainty and a heightened sense of insecurity exists more everywhere.

Russia is increasingly cause for concern; we have a Middle East ruled by autocrats desperately trying to stave off the rising tide of fundamentalist challenge; a Europe that is only nominally united; a USA brought low by its own wilful determination to use muscle over diplomacy; and a China that is quietly but steadily buying up the world’s resources wherever it can.

The world’s global currency – the US dollar – is getting cheaper by the day as the US Federal Reserve fights a rearguard action against its own consumer credit bubble. Inflation is just around the corner – oil at $100/barrel was laughed at a couple of years ago. And lastly of course there is climate change.

Eventually some of this background noise will interact to slow the whole growth game down. Until then, investment money will continue to flow into commodities.


Jessica Cross is CEO of VM Group, a UK-based commodities markets research house founded in 1997. In a career that spans about 20 years, Cross has worked as an precious metals commodity analyst for Anglo American, Consolidated Gold Fields and RTZ. She has a doctorate in financial engineering.
 
The latest forecast for Australia's commodity exports
:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

24 September 2007

Higher commodity exports despite poor season

Australian commodity export earnings are forecast to increase by 4 per cent to $144.7 billion in 2007-08, according to the September issue of ABARE’s Australian Commodities.

‘Farm export earnings are forecast to rise by more than 3 per cent to $28.5 billion in 2007-08, despite poor seasonal conditions in many parts of Australia meaning earnings will fall short of earlier expectations’, said Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE, on releasing the report today.

The increase in farm export earnings reflects a combination of mostly higher volumes shipped and good prices in global markets for grains and oilseeds, wool, beef and veal, lamb, wine and dairy products.

A forecast winter grains crop of 25.6 million tonnes in 2007-08, over 60 per cent greater than last year’s drought affected harvest, will contribute to a 3.6 per cent boost in export earnings from crops.

Mr Glyde was keen to point out, however, ‘that while much of the commodity focus has recently been on the lack of rain and its effect on both irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, mineral resources will continue to be far and away the mainstay of Australia’s commodity export performance’.

The value of Australia’s minerals and energy exports is forecast to be around $112 billion in 2007-08, a rise of 4 per cent from $108 billion in 2006-07. The forecast increase mainly reflects the effects of higher export volumes for mineral and energy commodities.

‘We are now starting to see the benefits of recent high levels of investment in the Australian mining industry, with the volume of mineral resources production and exports increasing. For example, export volumes of iron ore and coal are forecast to increase by 13 per cent and 7 per cent respectively in 2007-08,’ Mr Glyde said.

Earnings from energy exports are forecast to increase by more than 5 per cent to $41 billion, supported by an increase in the value of thermal coal and crude oil exports.

The metals and other minerals industries are forecast to contribute nearly $71 billion – an increase of 4 per cent – to Australian exports in 2007-08. Mineral commodities for which export earnings are forecast to increase significantly in 2007-08 include iron ore, copper and gold.
 
There's no doubt that commodities, particularly raw materials, have, are, and will remain one of Australia's greatest sources of income for decades to come. However this does not make the commodities sector, even with its massive revenue generation for the Australian economy, immune from the question that remains the major arbiter of whether any investment is sound or not: "Is the price good? Am I getting what I'm paying for? Am I getting back a desirable proportion of return for the amount of money I'm putting in?" In other words, what kind of return on capital am I talking about here?

Now the extent to which one pays of course depends on what prospects one believes a particular sector or issue will have into the future, and depending on what time frame one wishes to remain invested in the issue. Obviously the degree to which 'The Market' in general believes an issue will produce outstanding returns also affects investment performance - via the share price. Note the key word here was believes. The key point here is that belief needn't necessarily be a predictor of reality. And following on from that, the share price needn't either.

Just something to think about for the mom 'n pop investors out there who are considering it.

The question is one of either two:
  • Are commodities still reasonably priced for the amount of growth they can conservatively be expected to generate into the future?
  • OR, playing by the 'Greater Fool Theory', Are commodity stocks going to be driven up in price into the forseeable future? E.g. Are the Chinese and Russians really going to be paying up in the near future, even at these prices?

For valuers, the question is, "Am I getting in value what I'm paying for?" and his or her task is thus, to try to place a value on the issue. A challenging task perhaps but necessary nonetheless. Though not everybody is all that competent at valuing resources.

For punters, the question is, "Will the market continue to be interested enough in commodities such that people will continue to be willing to pay the prices they are paying now, and more, after I pay up myself?" Well for these people I guess, they'll just have to be watching the news more often!
 
Stick to OZ !

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::


Anvil, First Quantum may lose Congo licenses
Reuters | Posted: Sun, 04 Nov 2007
[Source: www.miningmx.com]

SIXTY-ONE mining contracts under review by a mining commission in Democratic Republic of Congo should be cancelled or renegotiated, according to a preliminary report from the panel seen by Reuters on Saturday.

The document, which a commission member said had not yet been finalised, showed that no contract reviewed by the panel was considered "viable" in its current form.

Thirty-seven contracts, including those with international firms Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, BHP Billiton and Nikanor, needed renegotiating while the remaining 24 should be terminated, the document recommended.

The commission was established to bring mining contracts in the vast former Belgian colony, most of which were negotiated during a 1998-2003 war and a subsequent three-year transition period, up to international standards.

"(The document) is the work of a subcommittee and is not the final version of the report. There still could be changes," the commission member told Reuters.

He said the final version of the report should be presented to Congo's Ministry of Mines on Tuesday.

Among those contracts recommended for cancellation are Toronto-listed Anvil Mining Ltd's rights to the Dikulushi copper and cobalt mine, where the Perth-based company[AVM @ ASX] has recently launched an underground mining operation.

"The commission notes that the state earns absolutely nothing in this contract and proposes the government end it," the report said among its recommendations.

The panel also called for a 2004 decree authorising the creation of KMT Plc, of which First Quantum Minerals is the major stakeholder, to be repealed.

Mining Code

The commission criticised several mining majors for irregularities in the negotiation of their contracts and recommended they be renegotiated but not cancelled.

Freeport McMoRan's Tenke Fungurume project, negotiated before the company's takeover of Phelps Dodge, was criticised for not respecting Congo's mining code.

"The government should end all these conventions and invite the parties to sign a new partnership conforming to the mining code with the right of pre-emption in favour of the current partner," the report said.

BHP Billiton and AngloGold Ashanti, which are both in joint ventures with state companies, and Nikanor, which has launched a $1.8bn copper project in Congo, were similarly criticised.

Following Congo's first democratic elections in more than four decades last year and a return to relative political stability following a five-year war, interest in the country's vast mining sector is booming.

The government first announced plans for a review of the legality and fairness of mining contracts early this year but the process was not launched until June and the commission's work has been delayed on several occasions.

Upon completion of the evaluation of the mining licenses, the commission is due to begin renegotiating the deals.
 
I repeat: stick to OZ !

:::::::::::::


DRC govt slams leaked licence report
Allan Seccombe, 06 Nov 2007
[www.miningmx.com]

THE mining licence review process in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been damaged by a leaked early draft of the Review Commission's report and the Ministry of Mines expects a large number of the companies operating there will continue to do so once "all irregularities have been corrected", said mines minister Martin Kabwelulu.

Newswires Reuters and Bloomberg have reported on a leaked preliminary draft of the Commission's report, saying 37 of the 61 contracts under review need renegotiating while the other 24 should be terminated.

"The speculation is not based on any official document, but on a leak of an early draft from within the Commission. The government deplores the leaking of this draft and the uncertainty that it has understandably created," Kabwelulu said in a statement.

Shares in companies operating in the DRC have fallen sharply since Friday as investors took fright on the leaked news.

"The review process has been damaged by this grossly misleading leak of information, but the DRC remains determined to manage the license review responsibly and to the benefit of all responsible companies," Kabwelulu said.

“It is expected that, after all irregularities have been corrected, the great majority of companies currently in the DRC will remain in the country for the long term. This has been and will remain the position of the government.”

Metorex, which has the Ruashi project in the DRC copperbelt, called the leaked report an "unauthorised breach of protocol", said CEO Charles Needham.

"The report of the Commission still requires discussion and amendment prior to presentation to the government and release by it," he said.

Other companies have said they would wait until the official report into their licences before commenting.

"The fact the report was leaked was bit of a surprise. The market hates uncertainty. It maximises the problem for the DRC," said Clive Newell, president of First Quantum.

The government launched the review process to ensure the contracts agreed during a six-year war, which ended in 2003, and a three-year transitional government period are above board.
 
January 14, 2008

Metal Price Forecasts – How Much Are They Worth? Part 2
By Our Man In Oz
www.minesite.com

This is the second of two comments on metal prices forecast by leading broking houses – the first was from London at the end of last week and this is from Our Man In Oz.. At the beginning of 2008 it seems timely to take a very close look from both ends of the world at these forecasts which run to 2015 and try to interpret the reasoning behind them as to so many investors they look wildly out of kilter with reality. This appears to be especially the case in Australia.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Europe. Now let me think, that used to be an important part of world, didn’t it? With apologies for the arrogance implicit in that question, it is valid to ask how the different hemispheres of the world see the future. And, nowhere is that more apparent than in the way the old world of Europe and the U.S., and the new world of Asia, see future demand for commodities – and future commodity prices. For Australia, stuck in the middle with its historic western-world connections, and an outlook which very much faces the eastern world, the choice of which side to back is rather simple because one half of the world (old) has gone negative, and the other half (new) remains positive.

Perhaps, the new BRIC world (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will slow down courtesy of the problems being caused by energy prices and what seems to be a systemic failure of the old-world banking system. But, that slowdown probably means growth in the east slips from its current break-neck 10 per cent to somewhere around 6-to-8 per cent. In the oil rich Middle East, and in energy-rich countries such as Australia with its coal, gas and uranium, there are few storm clouds on the horizon.

It is with that background in mind that last week’s long-term forecasts of metal prices from an anonymous London stockbroker looked, to an Australian, as unbelievably out of touch. Given that the courageous chaps peering eight years into the future have stuck their necks out a long way then any mistake can be forgiven. But, to see copper slipping back to around US$3,500 a tonne (US$1.75 per pound), nickel dropping to US$14,500 a tonne (US$7.25 a pound), and zinc falling to US$1,500 a tonne (US75 cents) is to have a exceptionally gloomy view of the world that could only have been compiled in the grey, wet, and miserable weather that is London in winter.

From Australia, admittedly without anyone having the balls to publish price forecasts eight years into the future, it seems that London might actually be on a different planet. Down this way we’re looking at Goldman Sachs forecasts of copper at US$3.63 a pound for the next few years, roughly double the London view. Nickel is forecast to hold US$12.50 and zinc US$1.15. Other tipsters in the new world agree. Citigroup has copper at US$3 for several years to come, and nickel settling between US$11 and $US13 a pound. UBS has copper at US$3.25 a pound, easing to US$3, and zinc at US$1.50 a pound, easing to US$1.15.

If there is an explanation as to how the eight-year forecaster in London tended to take such a gloomy view it is the old problem of someone reverting to the use of long-term trends. For an economist this is a perfectly normal thing to do because the only way they know how to look forward is by looking back and saying “that’s what happened over the past 50 years, therefore it will do the same over the next 50”. Wow! Is that a blinkered view of the world which fails completely to accommodate the demands of two billion Chinese and Indians who want (demand?) a better (metal rich) lifestyle.

And, if the demand side of the equation isn’t sufficiently persuasive there’s the supply side where it remains perfectly valid to ask (a) where is the next generation of mines, and (b) where is the infrastructure to get mined products to market given the chronic worldwide shortage of shipping and rail capacity – and that’s before we get to the question of political instability in some producing countries.

Europe remains a wonderful theme park for a holiday. It is not the place to look for growth, the future, or the place which accurately measures the pulse of the modern world.
 
bubbles bursting everywhere

ANALYSTS warn that speculative bubbles may be forming in commodity markets as global investors increasingly seek safe havens from uncertain stock markets and a weak US dollar, pushing gold and oil prices to record highs, and buoying base metal prices.

Commodity prices surged again yesterday with oil approaching $US105 a barrel, buoyed by declining US inventories and the OPEC oil cartel refusing to raise production. Military tensions between oil-rich Venezuela and neighbours Ecuador and Colombia provided further price support.
Gold hit a record high at $US991.80/oz on Wednesday and late yesterday remained at over $US986/oz.

Metals prices were also strong, with copper and aluminium prices approaching record highs as investors increasingly bet that Chinese demand will continue to grow strongly despite a slowdown in the US and Europe - what economists call the "de-coupling'' of Asian growth economies from downturns in developed economies.

Copper, aluminium and nickel prices are up about 30 per cent so far this year.

But with investors wary of equity and property markets in the wake of the global credit crunch, there are concerns that liquidity boosted by US interest rate cuts could be creating speculative bubbles in commodities.

Metal prices prices have been buoyed by power shortages in China that are expected to ease, and there are concerns that a fall in copper stocks on the London Metal Exchange may be partly contrived as some stocks are held off market.

"We have been pretty optimistic about China and we expect the decoupling will prove to be the right way to call the current situation but (given the US rate cuts) you tend to worry a bit about the next bubble and there could be some speculative activity here,'' Westpac's global head of economics Bill Evans told The Australian.

Two weeks ago, the founder of Platinum Asset Management Kerr Neilson told The Australian that mineral prices were ``simply far too high''.

"Take iron ore, for example, which has been ramped to ridiculous price levels. The clowns are taking over and there will be an awakening one day,'' he said.

National Australia Bank's minerals and energy economist Gerard Burg said investment money had become a significant part of commodity markets in recent years, and that speculative money is now quick to buy into any tightness in metal markets.

But he said the demand fundamentals remain intact on the back of Chinese growth. And he believes last month's 65-71 per cent iron ore price settlement is encouraging optimism on China.
Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto both this week reiterated their faith in a strong outlook for Chinese metal and mineral demand.

"We expect continuing double-digit GDP growth in China in 2008 and metals demand to continue to rise at a rate well above GDP growth,'' Rio chief executive Tom Albanese told a mining conference in Canada.

Speaking in Melbourne on Wednesday, BHP chairman Don Argus was similarly upbeat.

"China metal demand is growing and there is no evidence at this stage that this demand is abating,'' Mr Argus said.
 
Sam, doesnt the first half of your post contradict the second half? Vice-versa.

Definately specuation building in commodities as people look for a safe haven.

Money is pouring out of real estate, stockmarkets, cash no doubt, where is it going? Commodities for now, until this "bubble" bursts. But then where?

Interesting.
 
Jim Rogers: 'Abolish the Fed'

INTEREST RATES, FED, BEN BERNANKE, JIM ROGERS, FEDERAL RESERVE, WEAK DOLLAR, INFLATION

By CNBC.com | USA | 12 Mar 2008 |

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should resign and the Fed should be abolished as a way to boost the falling dollar and speed up the recovery of the U.S. economy, investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Europe Wednesday.


Asked what he would do if he were in Bernanke's shoes, Rogers, who slammed the Fed for pouring liquidity in the system and accepting mortgage-backed securities as guarantees, said: "I would abolish the Federal Reserve and I would resign."

If this happened, "we don't have anybody printing money, we don't have inflation in the land, we don't have a collapsing U.S. dollar," he told "Squawk Box Europe."

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday a rescue package that it would put around $200 billion into banks and investment houses and allow them to put up risky home-loan packages as collateral.

Wall Street responded to the news with the biggest rally of the year, but Rogers reminisced of the 1970s, when the Fed printed money to avert a recession, boosting inflation and then forcing interest rates to more than 20 percent to keep a lid on price rises.


"No country in the world has ever succeeded by debasing its currency," he said. "That's what this man is trying to do. He's trying to debase the currency as a way to revive America. It has never worked in the long term or the medium term."

'Socialism for the Rich'

The Fed's move to accept risky collateral is not part of the central bank's business, he added.

"What is Bernanke going to do? Get in his helicopter and fly around the world and collect rents? That's absurd," Rogers said.


A recession may be a good way to clean up the economy, while trying to prevent one may cost more and actually worsen the recession, Rogers said. Also, investment banks should be allowed to fail.

"Listen, investment banks have been going bankrupt since the beginning of time. If people make mistakes -- if you bail out every investment bank that gets in trouble, that's not capitalism, that's socialism for the rich," he said.

The weakest financial institution is Fannie Mae, in Rogers' opinion, "but all of them have problems."


He said he had a short position on all investment banks and is buying agricultural commodities such as cotton, wheat, coffee and sugar and was also buying the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen.

"Buy agriculture. Agriculture is one of the few places where you're going to make a fortune in the next years," Rogers said.
 
Is tin signalling the start of the next wave for commodities ?

Indonesia and Thailand etc. canneries starting to pump out the products again ...........
 
M & A activity in the mining sector (2007)

*****************

March 18, 2008
www.minesite.com

Eat Or Be Eaten In The Mining Sector As M&A Activity Reaches New Records

‘Eat or be eaten’ is the new reality for companies in the global mining industry as mergers and acquisitions (M&A) levels reach unprecedented levels and a new era of super-consolidation begins. That is the key finding of ‘Mining Deals’, a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers reviewing deal-making in the sector. It shows a huge surge in mining company M&A.

Among the salient statistics that the report points to, a few stand out. The volume of mining deals rose 69 per cent from the 2006 level to 1,732 in 2007. Total transaction value was US$158.9bn, up by 18 per cent on the previous year, and the strong upward trend covered mining companies of all sizes. Over 90 per cent of all deals involved transactions of US$250 million or less and the number of such deals doubled in just two years from 2005 to 2007. At the other end of the scale, the number of US$1 billion-plus deals trebled, from eight in 2005 to 25 in 2007. What’s more, Chinese and Russian companies have made their mark with a number of key foreign acquisitions in North America and Australia. The total value of mining deals conducted by entities from these two countries rose six-fold, from just US$5.3 billion in 2005 to US$32.7 billion in 2007, accounting for a fifth of total mining deal value worldwide.

This year looks set to see mining deals reach astronomical record levels as super-consolidation takes place in the market. Early in 2008, BHP Billiton announced a takeover offer for Rio Tinto, and with a potential deal value over the US$150 billion mark it would shatter all previous records if it went through. The previous highest single deal value was Rio Tinto’s 2007 US$43 billion purchase of Alcon. That the era of super-consolidation is upon us is further highlighted by rumours of a Vale bid for Xstrata in a deal that could be worth US$90 billion.

And there’s little evidence of a slowdown in deal activity as a result of the credit crunch. Indeed the number of mining deals announced in the fourth quarter of 2007 was more than double the level recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2006, while the latest heavyweight moves by the biggest players has got 2008 mining deal-making off to an unprecedented start.

Commenting, Tim Goldsmith, global mining leader, PricewaterhouseCoopers, said: “No company can stand aside in this ‘eat or be eaten’ environment. Everybody needs to be both on the front foot as well as looking over their shoulders. The very biggest companies are positioning themselves to achieve super-consolidated global scale. They face considerable competition from fast-growing companies emerging from India, Russia and China. The industry landscape is set to change dramatically”.

Underpinning this trend is the quest for world scale, resource acquisition, and resource diversification. High commodity prices and optimism about the industry’s long-term prospects for growth and profitability, in the context of new and sustained demand from Asia outstripping fluctuations in western demand, means that companies are embarking on ambitious long-term growth strategies. Looking ahead, economic slowdown in the US, continuing financial market uncertainty, and fears of actual recession will inevitably cast a cloud of uncertainty over the immediate future. However, while these factors tending to instability are likely to deliver a bumpier deal-making ride, the fundamentals for mergers and acquisitions activity in mining remain strong. Indeed, 2008 looks set to be a landmark - if not a record - deal year for the industry.

PricewaterhouseCoopers’ report goes on to focus on some of the deals already done in each of the key mining regions. In North America, says the consultant, deal-making by North American mining companies continued at a very high level in 2007, even without a repeat of the clutch of mega-mergers that characterised 2006. Canadian companies, in particular, proved attractive to foreign buyers drawn to the advantages of investing in a politically stable environment. Alongside this, there was considerable consolidation as mid-cap North American mining companies took the opportunity to scale up with a number of mutually strategic fits with counterpart companies.

In the Asia Pacific region, including Australia, deals for Asia Pacific mining assets surged in 2007. Deal numbers were up by 72 per cent from 368 in 2006 to 634 in 2007. Total deal value rose 216 per cent from US$11.2 billion to US$35.3billion. There was also a significant increase in the number of big deals. In 2007, there were seven US$1 billion-plus deals for Asia Pacific mining assets and a further eight US$0.5 billion-plus deals. In contrast, in 2006, there were just two deals above US$1 billion and no others above US$0.5 billion. Intense competition for Australian mining assets lay behind much of the deal growth, with foreign buyers attracted by the politically stable environment and the potential to fill their resource pipelines.

There was also a big increase in deals for diversified assets in the Russian Federation, and that, combined with a step change in international expansion by Russian companies, put Russia firmly on the mining M&A world map in 2007. Total deal value for Russian Federation assets was up 16 per cent to US$19.1 billion in 2007 and Russian buying activity rose 66 per cent to account for US$26 billion of assets, up from US$15.7 billion in 2006. It was the size of the biggest deals rather than the extent of deal activity that pushed up the totals. Two deals topped the list of purchases of Russian mining assets: Rusal’s US$13.3 billion acquisition of a 25 per cent stake in Norilsk Nickel, and Mechel Steel’s winning US$2.3bn bid in the privatisation auction for stakes in Russian coal mining companies Yakutugol and Elgaugol. In addition, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel’s US$5.4 billion all cash purchase of Canadian nickel miner LionOre highlighted the importance of international expansion by Russian mining companies.

In Africa and South America there were also big increases in deal numbers for assets in both continents. The number of deals rose by 81 per cent from 52 in 2006 to 94 in 2007 in Africa, and by 51 per cent, from 115 to 174 in South America. Of the two regions, Africa accounted for the largest total deal value with US$13.5 billion worth of deals, up by 38 per cent from US$9.8 billion in 2006. South American total deal value rose slightly from US$8.6 billion in 2006 to US$8.7 billion in 2007.
 
Gold prices have tumbled sharply on the back of the USD rebound, increasing the risk for a fresh wave of commodity selling mirroring the action that emerged on Monday when the CRB fell to a three week low. The Baltic Dry Index has now declined for six days and base metals are at risk of following the gold decline. Gold is now under $1000 at $978, well down from highs around $1025 yesterday. Gold/JPY is at a further risk of a sell-off after losses already seen yesterday. A gold/JPY sell-off will weigh on AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY as well.
 
Gold prices have tumbled sharply on the back of the USD rebound, increasing the risk for a fresh wave of commodity selling mirroring the action that emerged on Monday when the CRB fell to a three week low. The Baltic Dry Index has now declined for six days and base metals are at risk of following the gold decline. Gold is now under $1000 at $978, well down from highs around $1025 yesterday. Gold/JPY is at a further risk of a sell-off after losses already seen yesterday. A gold/JPY sell-off will weigh on AUD/JPY and CAD/JPY as well.
One week on and there is not much different from a few weeks before.
Actually, oil, gold and base metals are in a short-term rally.
If anything, it appears a lot of fund money is going "long" into commodities, including oil.
That doesn't mean their prices won't collapse at some point in the future.
But it does mean that the forward price curves are still climbing, so the next big rally in commodity prices will launch from a substantially higher base than analysts though possible a year ago; when they were forecasting the market to unravel.
 
Top