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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Just a question from a guy who's having a stab at T/A

does today's XAO chart show a cup and handle formation??

:)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Go figure. Yanks up 9 points on the dow and the SPI goes up 30+ points.
Aussie plunge protection team doing a good job. Will be interesting if we get a interest rate rise.

Rogue Trading
 
Re: XAO Analysis

So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.

Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.

Any thoughts on whats happening?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pat said:
So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.

Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.

Any thoughts on whats happening?
Click to expand...
euphoria
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pat said:
So the XAO hits an all time high of 6079 and no posts.

Some say where in 3 wave correction, yet the all ords seem to be rocketing.

Any thoughts on whats happening?
Click to expand...

Too much money, too few assets to buy?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450. :eek:

This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment. :confused:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment. :confused:
Click to expand...
That answers Pats question ;)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just follow the leader and short when another correction happens guys, no use fighting trends here lol.. before you blink RIO could be $120 and BHP $45.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450. :eek:

This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment. :confused:
Click to expand...

Nice Answer.

And the repercussions of "pushed aside fundamentals"?
Don't think the answer will be good.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pat said:
LOL.

I wasn't expecting it to break 6000 so soon.
Click to expand...

I would be wary about shorting xao at present. Below is a semi log chart of xao since 1982, about the time I first bought in to the market. I found second guessing the xao to be an expensive exercise. This chart includes a Gann fan. It shows nothing extraordinary (excuse the pun) about the xao's rise recently.

Without a classic distribution with lower highs and lower lows, it would be unwise to short the market at present. That is not to say that one might "fluke" a correction, but so far no one has convinced me that this market is correcting.

Garpal
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
I would be wary about shorting xao at present. Below is a semi log chart of xao since 1982, about the time I first bought in to the market. I found second guessing the xao to be an expensive exercise. This chart includes a Gann fan. It shows nothing extraordinary (excuse the pun) about the xao's rise recently.

Without a classic distribution with lower highs and lower lows, it would be unwise to short the market at present. That is not to say that one might "fluke" a correction, but so far no one has convinced me that this market is correcting.

Garpal
Click to expand...

I think your looking in the wrong spot, I think XAO is fundamentally ok, the problems aren't in Australia but in the US. If/when the US takes a dive, we'll go for a dive in sympathy...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
I'm beat. I'm still waiting for 5450. :eek:

This has lost me. Perhaps the world is so awash with money, that the other fundamentals are getting pushed aside for the moment. :confused:
Click to expand...

Hi Kennas I can't remember whether I mentioned this here before, I know I have elsewhere, but my original thoughts on this corection were that there wouldn't be one, or that it would be a small one, and then we would see a parabolic rise in the All Ords, followed by a significant crash late this year or early next. I'm talking 1987 like... I've been watching (not lately) the RSI on the XAO and making comparisons (on a log scale) to what happened in 1987, will have to re-visit now that the all ords has returned to over 6000 and see how it looks... The fact it is 20 years since the 87 crash may (or may not) be significant too.

My basic feeling was that we would have a woosy correction and everyone would sigh a sigh of relief believing that it was the correction we had to have, and then the market would go on to new and dizzying heights, just when everyone was thinking "It's different this time" using whatever the latest reason is, it will come crashing down fueled by the amount of leveraged money in the market.

Part of the reason I didn't sell more before this correction was because I thought I'd miss out on the parabolic rise... the tricky part is timing the exit... RSI somewhere around 87 I think would see me out...

BTW I'm back in full time employment now, so my time for research has evaporated somewhat ;)

Tony.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

wintermute said:
.... just when everyone was thinking "It's different this time" using whatever the latest reason is, it will come crashing down fueled by the amount of leveraged money in the market.
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I think this sums it up nicely. Just when everyone thinks they are back in their comfort zone and economists/analysts are patting themsevles on their collective backs, the real correction will come out of the blue. The dynamics have changed I think with the last correction a month ago so that (I hope?) investors/traders are not so blindingly bullish, but are aware of the changing world economy fundamentals, especially in the US. In the meantime, go along with the game but sit next to the exit door just in case.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I belong to the EW group thinking this was a major ABC correction, clearly this is very unlikely now and a retest of the old high and the market will likely head higher.

Wintermute’s comments about comparing 87 to now is interesting, the thing that I keep wondering about is that company earning’s and valuations are not as distorted now as 87 (saw a chart somewhere) and Comsec keeps saying the current PE is below the mean average (fundamentals is not my strength).

Maybe for a serious correction there will need to be a major event for example involving China such as China invading Taiwan rather than a correction based on market dynamics.

Focus
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Maybe for a serious correction there will need to be a major event for example involving China such as China invading Taiwan rather than a correction based on market dynamics.

Focus
Click to expand...

The correction will be triggered by the US...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OK I fired up incredible charts and here is what I saw :)

xao_ax19mar80_to_07apr07-1.png

I'm postulating that we are at the point now where the cross-hair is in 1987. there was a little pullback there before the stratospheric rise... note that the RSI has now gone past the point where it corrected the last three times, but everyone things we've had our correction!!

Tony.
 

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